Thoroughbreds: Welcome RT, who explains his handicapping technique and picks three races at Mahoning Valley

It is an honor to be contributing to Bettors Insider. If you unwittingly happened on to the site, as I did, you more than likely were initially struck by its professional appearance and more importantly, you found that the individual contributors were outstanding. Again, it is my pleasure to be here.

By the way, begging for a job does work.

I will be covering Penn National and Keeneland for now, but Mahoning Valley today.

Musings…

A young lady (I’m 60, so most are younger than me) whom I am mentoring called me Saturday morning and asked if I had watched any of Santa Anita’s re-opening races and if so, what were my thoughts and, is there anything on Saturday that was of interest? I replied that I only caught a couple, very briefly, and I planned on putting $20 to win and $40 to place on Victor Espinoza in the San Marcos Stakes. When she inquired as to how that choice came about, I told her that anyone who is that crazy to board a horse after the nasty accident which he almost died from and left him temporarily paralyzed was a) crazy enough, in an Iago archetype way where he’ll figure, go for it and pffft with the rest and b) he really needs the money. Paying $33.40 and $14.20 was a surprise.

How I go about my handicapping . . .

I use Equibase for PP’s and occasionally, will look at their Race Lens. If you are a subscriber, you get 6 different types of PP’s all of which you may customize to your taste. Personally, I like to set it to reflect each horses’ fractions giving me a snapshot of where its strengths lie.

First, before reading a running line, I download one of their PP’s and in the back, it lists “Trainers In Today.” In that section, I look for that rare trainer who has few horses, a strong ITM% and when you see one entered, you’ll know the trainer has it ready. Using a spreadsheet, I’ll make a notation of those who may be of interest. In tomorrow’s case at Penn, (getting ahead a day), one of the trainers is Daniel Velazquez. Daniel is saddling the 7 horse in race 8 -- Fire Up The Band. Daniel has 9 outs, 3 wins and 78% ITM. I then go to the PP’s of that horse and disseminate further. In this case, this filly is 1st off a layoff (25%) in a $10K claimer (19%) has a had a solid work on 3/19 and the jockey (25% wins the last 10 days) is riding her the 2nd time around. All positives and made note of.

After that cursory look, I put the PP’s in the same spreadsheet going back 5 races. If you are not familiar with Equibase or Timeform, they establish a par for each race by using sensor technology such from companies such as Trakus, the clockers and from drones (more so in Europe) allowing each race to be magnified further. You get a par for each race the horse ran and an E figure to coincide. By example, Fire Up The Band, as mentioned before, ran a 65 over a 62 par last out. The par today is 60, so the class drop is another buy signal. After putting the remainder of the PP’s in the spreadsheet, I highlight which has run above par against today’s number, paying closest attention to its last one or two. This signals condition, which is the true test of whether it’ll run well today. I want a horse conditioned like my son who owns cross fit clubs. He and his squeeze scaled down the Grand Canyon and back in 8 hours (40 miles), and a desk jockey like me has no chance of keeping up.

Now, going back to the 7 horse, I’ll watch the last race (another Equibase and Timeform advantage) and notice that she angled out in the stretch, Velazquez righted her, and she dug in and was closing for a very game 2nd. Again, she hasn’t had a race since 2/23 and she had a workout on March 19th at Parx breezing 4 furlongs in :51 9/10ths. You may think that a dull workout and on the surface it is. However, it was at Parx, which is equivalent to running on the yellow sand of Lignano, so it has more meaning than at first blush.

I then print the races of interest and color/underline everything of interest, reflecting back on the spreadsheet and establishing who is going to fulfill the axiom…”a good horse, a good jockey, a good bet.”

I then try to take a snapshot of the pace in my minds eye.

For today, Mahoning Valley is what I’m looking at. It’ll be partly sunny and 44̊ at post time. Mahoning Valley tends to have success with horses coming out of key races See here.

Today, there are 6 horses that qualify:
Spatetacular Joe and Wizard Willie in the 4th.
Saveyourmoneyhony & Mo Freedom in the 5th.
Create An Edge in the 6th.
Soul Machen in the 8th.

Focusing on the 4th: Spatetacular Joe isn’t of interest because the key race was a $7500 claimer and the only horse coming out of that key race, who went at a similar level or greater, bombed. The rest dropped in class out of that race and the only similar ran in a $7500 claimer. This race is a $15K claimer. This is a false or negative key race.

Wizard Willie is of definitive interest. In his last race, which was the key race, Wizard Willie set the early pace and then abruptly “stopped.” Or perhaps, eased. This is usually a buy signal because horses coming out of this mode tend to fare much better than their prior races. Additionally, the horses out of this key race all ran well in allowance races and Willie is dropping to claimer.

The next item is trainer David St. Clair who has two entries today. David has very few horses in his barn, has a high win percentage (30) and is someone who will send a horse out only when it’s ready.

Race 2, Queeb (class dropper)

Race 4, Freekson (shipper who has been on the bench since August)

From the onset, I am interested in Races 2 and 4. There is also a maiden special weight race which is of interest as well – race 3

Mahoning Valley Race 2
$5K Starter Allowance going 6f for 3yo+ which have started for a $5K claiming price or less in 2018-2019

The skinny: 2-Finoetta, 1-Queeb, 6-Sheltowee’s Point and 4-Tia Cella will set the pace at the first call with 3-Paint Dakota pressing behind. When they get to the turn, the 2 will have run ahead and the 5-Sealed With A Kiss is near with the 1 & 6 coming on. As they enter the stretch, the 5 is going to take the lead and will battle down the stretch with the 6, 1, 2 & 3.

The Bets for Mahoning Valley Race 2:
#5 (3-1) $10/win and $20/place
$2 Exacta box 5-2-6
$1 Trifectas’ 5-6/5-6-2/3, 5-6/3/5-6-2, 3/5-6/5-6-2

Mahoning Valley Race 3
Maiden Special Weight 3yo Fillies, $22,100 purse

A number of players refuse to play maiden races due to the horses green nature, habits established (perennial second and third place finishers) and often times a first time starter that is a true unknown quantity. Personally, I like them because you can get a firm grasp of trainer intention and the entry’s condition; which is the most paramount trait in Maidens, versus class or pace.

For race 3, 1-Solar System (3-1) shipped from Tampa and has been claimed twice in her short career. Her first race at MVR was a $7.5K MCL and she held a large lead before losing it in the last call, getting up for 2nd. Her most recent was a move up to this level where she had a very dull showing

2-A Perfect Sky (9-2) 2nd time out with the first in an Ohio bred $30K MSW. Ran a solid race, setting the pace before tiring, garnering a 34 E figure vs a 48 par. She’s a 1st time Lasix user and this may not go well. First Lasix tends to make horses jittery, jumpy and have a bad gate experience. Having a run under her belt may change this Lasix dose today.

3-Nina’s Promise (7-2) recent shipper from TP, this filly has been claimed recently and had one race with the trainer. Many dull efforts tell me the trainer is taking her out for air.

4-At First Blush (5/2) Unraced horse. While I do not favor 1st timers (unreliable and can be spooked from the bumping at the gate, the crowd, the announcer, getting dirt kicked up, traffic and the whip stings, to name a few), this race and this horse may be an exception. Her sire is Street Sense 13:6.4.2 $4.383M and her dam is Blush Island, an unraced mare. The dam, in my opinion, is much more important because the gestation period is typically 340 days and they can only have effectively one foal per year. The sire, on the other hand, is a breeding machine. The dam has yet to have a first-time starter and her works have been decent for this level. Of note is her 3 gate works out of 8 before this race. This is a positive, signaling the trainer has her gate prepared, which usually is the trickiest piece of preparation.

5-Honey Shack (6-1) ran in a $25K claimer for her first out on 1/11 and was subsequently claimed from Michael Trombetta. She was shipped to TP and raced on 3/9 and ran a 6 vs a 78 par. Not good. She had a workout on 3/19 going 4f in :51/4.

6-Mother Ocean (5-1) started her career at MVR in a $10K mcl having a solid outing setting the pace before tiring and finishing 2nd. She received a 47/43 score and was claimed. Trainer/owner Bogart moved her to TP and raced her twice. The first time out at that track was an improvement getting 2nd again and hitting a 66/77. Her next and last out, she bore out and her jockey couldn’t right her and subsequently mailed it in. She’s a live play due to her positive response at MVR.

The skinny: 6-Mother Ocean has the best speed number in this group and has not raced against state breds, so the drop in class is a pick up. 1-Solar System has shown jump from the start and can potentially set a pace controlling race. 2-A Perfect Sky is a 2nd time starter and it is typical to expect improvement in their 2nd out. The addition of Lasix will either cause her to fly out of the gate, or struggle there and it’ll be incumbent on her jockey to be patient, not hurry her up to the pack, and rate her properly to get in the money.

The bets for Mahoning Valley Race 3
#6 - $10/win and $20/place
$2 Exacta Box 6-1-2
$1 Trifectas’ 2-1/2-1-4/6, 2-1/6/2-1-4, 6/2-1/2-1-4

Mahoning Valley Race 4
$15K Claimers, NW3L going 6f for 3yo+

The skinny: 4-Frigate Fire (4-1) has a score two back at today’s par of 86. Gets class relief today, is trained by the leader Jeff Radosevich (31% in class down) and the T/J tandem have a 33%. Gerardo Corrales is up. 1-Spectacular Joe (6-1) comes into this race after putting in a sweet effort. He started badly at the gate, moved up and roared down the stretch nailing the last fraction in :24.88. . .one helluva lot better than the lot of them. 7-Freekson (20-1) and 2- Wizard Willie (8-1) respectively. Let the trend be your friend. As mentioned above, Freekson has trainer St. Clair and Wizard Wille is coming out of a key race

False Faves: 3-Willie I Am (7-2) been on the bench since late January and has had no workouts. 6-Demand Ransom (5-2) shipper from Hawthorne. Trainer only gets 6% wins when moving down in class

Of note – this may be worth listening to the announcer…you have one Joe, two Willie’s, one being an alliterative Wizard Willie, an alliterate Frigate Fire, an O’Malley and a Freekson.

The Bets
#4 $10/win and 20/place
$2 Exacta 4-1/4-1-7-2
$1 Trifecta 4-2/4-2-7/1, 4-2/1/4-2-7, 1/4-2/4-2-7