Thoroughbreds: McMudder looks to play the fields at Aqueduct and Laurel Park
It’s getting real now. What’s getting real? Spring time is getting real. Finally, consistent warmer weather and the opening of the turf courses. With both Laurel and Aqueduct scheduling turf races in the near future, all of those turf horses that spent the winter trudging around picking up checks in short fields will now be asked to step up on the green and win in 12+ horse fields. What a boon for the tracks! Bigger fields! More competition! But for the punter…caution. Handicapping specialists is tough. Handicapping those coming off layoffs or from out of town is really tough. So for the next few days, let’s focus on dirt horses winning dirt races and see if we can’t find some value in these short fields.
Picks for March 29, 2019:
Assuming the rains hold off or are light, fast with a good breeze.
Aqueduct Race 1
Maiden fillies and mares at 8 f. 6-Mo Moxie looks to be the stand out here and just needs to reproduce the last race to be victorious. The only possible concern is the low win percentage for this barn with new arrivals. Here it should not matter.
$10 W/P/S 6-Mo Moxie
Aqueduct Race 8
Optional $75K for 3 year old fillies at 8f. Super quality race with 4-Avalina looking like the pick but the single race, a maiden breaker for a tag, was sprinting in the slop. How will that translate to this race? Trainer Danny Gargan is red hot so it may not matter but Mick is looking elsewhere. Instead look to the 5-Figure It Out to do just that. The last race at this level was solid and the increase in distance should not be a problem. Important to bet this one across the board since her show pay could be higher than many others across the board. Anything better, you win more.
$10 W/P/S 5-Figure It Out
Laurel Race 2
$25K claimer for fillies and mares at 8 f. Reducing this race to 3 contenders makes it much easier to get a grasp. 2-Lady Terp, 4-Le Weekend, and 5-Jemrose look like the quality. Roll them all into the exotics and move on.
$1 Exacta box 2,4,5
$0.50 Trifecta box 2,4,5
Laurel Race 3
$25K maiden fillies at 6 f. Get a first time starter here in a race where the experienced are all lacking. The rail horses have not impressed in the morning but the outside horse, 9-Rosaparks, has good works and the first time at a mile is not unreasonable for the breeding and the connections. Trainer Ann Merryman could wait for turf season to start this daughter of Seville but goes here instead. Looks like she got the right field.
$20 W/P/S 9-Rosasparks
And now for some quickies . . .
Aqueduct Race 9
NY bred $30K maidens for 3 year old boys at 8f. Typically, this is the lowest maiden race available in NY during the winter. And this is about the usual. 5-Jack Bo looks super tough after getting claimed last out at a higher level and then dropped. Hard to argue with any part of this one.
Laurel Race 5
Starter Allowance for older boys at 8 f. 2-Try Flying looks to invade from the north (Parx) and benefit from the 1 turn mile. These connections are really good shipping. They should probably do more of it.