Dubai World Cup: Garrity handicaps the international card at Meydan Racecourse

We're back with a special edition for tomorrow's Dubai World Cup card at Meydan Racecourse in the United Arab Emirates. While these races happen tomorrow, Saturday, March 30, they deserve a separate entry for a couple of reasons: one is that this is arguably the biggest, best card all year, anywhere in the world; the other is that because of the time difference (Dubai is eight hours ahead of us here on the Eastern seaboard), the races go off early, most of them Saturday morning, and the headliner, the $12 million Dubai World Cup, at 12:40 pm Eastern. These races deserve a separate look, and this is doubly true with Saturday being Florida Derby day at Gulfstream Park: these races are too good to get lost in the shuffle of Kentucky Derby madness.

So we will break them down separately, right here. We will also note, because we have a few people peeking in here from around the world, that when we are discussing anything of a pari-mutuel nature, odds and all the rest, that we are referring to North American pools. And all times shown are U.S./Canada Eastern Time (i.e. New York time). Here is the lineup of races being offered by our local account-wagering service (they’ve skipped the first race, which is for Arabians). These races are all, except where noted, for older horses (3/4 and up):

Race 2   Godolphin Mile. Group/Grade 2, 1 mile, dirt. Post time 8:15 am.

Race 3   Dubai Gold Cup. Group/Grade 2, 2 miles, turf. Post time 8:50 am.

Race 4   Al Quoz Sprint. Group/Grade 1, 6 furlongs, turf. Post time 9:30 am.

Race 5   UAE Derby. Group/Grade 1. 1 3/16 miles, dirt. Restricted to Three-year-Olds. Post time 10:05 a.m.

Race 6   Dubai Golden Shaheen. Group/Grade 1. 6 furlongs, dirt. Post time 10:40 a.m

Race 7   Dubai Turf. Group/Grade 1. 1 1/8 miles, turf. Post time 11:20 a.m.

Race 8   Dubai Sheema Classic.  Group/Grade 1. 1 1/2 miles, turf. Post time: 12:00 noon.

Race 9   Dubai World Cup. Group/Grade 1. 1 1/4miles, dirt. Post time: 12:40 pm.

We’ll take a look at each of these races individually, but we want to note a couple of things that apply to all of them. One is that this card, more than any other, probably, has horses coming from all over the world to participate. It certainly has a greater international presence than, say, the Breeders Cup, which features horses based almost exclusively in the U.S., with a few Euros tossed in. In contrast, the Dubai World Cup races feature runners who made their lasts starts in Japan, France, Hong Kong, Great Britain, the United States, Australia, and South Africa, plus the horses based in the Middle East. This really is a day of international racing.

The other thing worth mentioning about these races is that like the Breeders Cup, when you have this many high-quality horses in one race, it can produce inflated prices. A horse would be 7/2 or 4-1 in a “normal” Group/Grade 1 race can, because the runners are almost all good, go off at boxcar odds, sometimes 20-1 or higher. This is perhaps the main reason we play these kinds of cards: at no other time of the year can the player get such good horses at such enormous prices.

But the punter has to be sharp to get this. With horses coming from hither and yon, from different seasons and stages of the racing season, even, predicting these races is very, very difficult. But the potential payoffs are worth it, and we have never shied from a challenge. So we’ll dive right into these races. Let’s go.

Godolphin Mile

This race is headlined by 6-Muntazah, a British-bred 6-year-old gelding based in Dubai. He won his last two starts, both at a mile on dirt, by very large margins, earning big figures doing so. He’s even money on the morning line.

Put bluntly, Muntazah is perhaps the biggest underlay on the card, and we cannot wait to bet against him. His last two wins looked good, sure, but they were against mediocre fields in obscure races in Dubai; and while he did get big figs in them, he did so by dominating the race from start to finish in a way that we think is highly unlikely today. He may have steamrolled a few weak fields in his last two; but that is not going to happen here.

We like 12-Coal Front. This 5-year-old is one of two U.S.-based horses in the race, and he’s trained by Todd Pletcher. This is an absolutely world-class horse, who’s won 6 of 8 career starts, and we think he’s the best of the lot here: We think he simply outclasses the field. He’s coming off a brief freshening, but he has enough recent activity for us to think that A) he’s ready and fit, and B) sitting on a big race. We don’t think that we will get the 7-1 morning line price, but we think that the presence of Muntazah will make him an overlay. We will bet him to win, and we will do it enthusiastically. The bet: Meydan Racecourse Race 2, $20 win on 12-Coal Front.

Dubai Gold Cup

We don’t often get the opportunity to handicap races two miles long, but we did take a look at this one. The favorite, 9-Cross Counter, is 8/5, and looks tough. This 4-year-old became the first UK-based horse in history to win the Melbourne Cup last November, and he’ll be facing a field nowhere near as tough as what he beat down under. 2-Call the Wind (3-1) and 6-Ispolini (2-1) look to have solid credentials as well.

The condition of the turf course, however, looks to be a concern to these three top contenders. Most of these animals seem to prefer grass with some give in it, and the turf at Meydan tomorrow should be firm. Because of this, we’ll pass on the obvious contenders, and take a small flier on 4-Platimum Warrior: This 4-year-old was bred in Ireland, but is based in Southern California, and is trained by John Sadler. This is a stab, but Platinum Warrior has shown that he likes firm turf, and he should be able to stay the 2 miles, so we’ll make a small play on him. The bet: Meydan Racecourse Race 3, $5 win on 4-Platinum Warrior.

Al Quoz Sprint

There’s another heavy favorite in here, 8-Blue Point, an Irish-bred 5-year-old who has won two consecutive stakes sprinting on the turf at Meydan. He’s 3/5 on the morning line, which we love, not because we like him – we don’t; we couldn’t bet him with counterfeit money – but because it creates the potential for an overlay somewhere else.

And we think we’ve found one with the outside horse, 13-Wishful Thinker. This Australian-bred horse is based in Hong Kong, and his recent form there is very, very sharp. Moreover, we think he might get better the firmer the turf gets. He’s got a very big shot to win, and he’s 20-1 on the morning line. We’ll take the big price and bet him to win and to place. The bet: Meydan Racecourse Race 4, $10 to win and place on 13-Wishful Thinker.

The UAE Derby

This is the Kentucky Derby Prep race on the Dubai World Cup card. We will not get into the merits of this race as a Derby prep, other than to say that the Dubai-to-Louisville path to the Derby has not yet been shown to be a successful one.

And even by this race’s standards, this looks to be a less-than-stellar field. In fact, we’ll pass on the race. Were we forced to make a play, we’d probably lean toward 11-Van Beethoven, the Ontario-bred Coolmore/Aiden O’Brien entrant who’s been running on turf and synthetics in England and Ireland, but who’s really bred for the turf. He’s 10-1 on the morning line. But we don’t like this runner, or anyone else for that matter, to make an official play.

The Dubai Golden Shaheen

This is the one race on the card, even more so than the World Cup itself, that American horses have historically dominated. This makes sense, because it’s a dirt sprint, and these are run more frequently, and at a higher level, in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world.

This year, the Shaheen looked to have another dominant U.S. winner, but on Thursday, odds-on favorite Roy H was scratched. This leaves a field of 9, and makes the race far, far more wide open than it would be otherwise.

We do not particularly fancy any of the international runners. They look a cut, or even two cuts, below the abilities of top-shelf American dirt sprinters.

We like 2-Imperial Hint. This 6-year-old Florida-bred horse was the best sprinter in the country last year, winning the True North, Vanderbilt, and the Vosburgh, but then he ran a couple of duds, losing as the favorite in the Breeders Cup Sprint, and finishing an almost inexplicably dull third in an overnight stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

But we think that he’s back to his prior form: a couple of recent works are razor-sharp, and we think that with Roy H out, he’s the cream of the crop here. And we might get 3-1 on him, which for a horse of his stature, is a giant price. We’ll bet him to win. The bet: Meydan Racecourse Race 6, $15 to win on 2-Imperial Hunt.

The Dubai Turf

This one is easy: Japanese-bred and Japanese based 4-year-old filly, 7-Almond Eye, looks to be damn near invincible. She’s won six straight races, all on grass, with the last four at the very highest level of Japanese racing. In her last five, she finished in front of 76 (!) other horses. She’s something special, and figures to win this race at a short price. Take a shot against her if you wish – we’d go with John Gosden’s runner, 12-Without Parole, at 15-1 if we were so inclined – but we won’t. Neither will we bet her. Instead, we’ll watch a very special filly add to an already memorable racing career.

The Dubai Sheema Classic

We dislike the favorite in here, 2-Old Persian. There’s nothing wrong with this 4-year-old colt, but we think that he’s nowhere near good enough to merit 8/5 favoritism. We’re going to throw him out and look elsewhere.

The race for us comes down to two runners. The first is 3-Magic Wand, a 4-year-old filly from the Coolmore/O’Brien team. She is 6-1 on the morning line. This daughter of Galileo looks to prefer firm going, and also looks to have had some buzzard’s luck in trying to get it: They brought her to the U.S. twice in recent months, presumably looking for firm footing, and didn’t get it either time: the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf in November came up good, and the grass for a Grade 1 Stakes at Gulfstream in January came up yielding. She ran well in both races, despite the going being not quite what she was looking for.

The other runner we like is 6-Rey de Oro. This Japanese 5-year old is a proven top-shelf winner, and the distance and conditions of this race seem to fit him like a glove. Moreover, he loves firm turf, as his recent wins in the Group/Grade 1 Tenno Sho and Group/Grade 2 Sankei Sho in Japan, both of which were run on firm footing, illustrate. He’s 5/2.

In picking between these two, we have a horse we think prefers firm grass, and one we know does. We’re going to go with the latter, and that means Rey do Oro. We’ll bet him to win, and we will box both of them in the exacta. The bets: Meydan Racecourse Race 8, $20 to win on 6-Rey de Oro; $5 Exacta Box, 3 (Magic Wand) with 6 (Rey de Oro).

Dubai World Cup

Now, onto the Dubai World Cup. This $12 million race has been won by some all-time greats, like Cigar, Silver Charm, and Dubai Millennium. None of the runners in here will remind anyone of those horses, but we think it is nevertheless a good race to bet.

We dislike all of the locally based runners, including last year’s winner, 12-Thunder Snow, and 7-Gronkwoski, whose primary claim to fame is his name.

We like 4-Audible, who’s 12-1. We think he’s going to get the fast dirt that he really wants, but that he hasn’t seen: His last two races were both on sealed, sloppy tracks. And we think that he could wake up, in quite a big way, and could do so at quite a big price. We will bet him to win. The bet: Meydan Racecourse Race 9, $25 to win on 4-Audible.

That’s all for now. We’ll be back tomorrow morning with a look at the national stakes racing, including (and especially) the Florida Derby card. Good luck at the windows.