Thoroughbreds: Garrity preps for Louisiana Derby, with NoLa picks
It's Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. It will be both a great day of racing and a big step on the road to the big Derby, the one in Louisville the first Saturday in May. To gird our loins for it, and to get into full-on Derby mode, we'll take a look at the card in New Orleans. The weather there should be splendid today, high 60s and sunny, so we're handicapping for fast and firm. We also took a look at the cards at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, but the weather in Florida today is supposed to be iffy, so we'll pass on those tracks. But that's OK, because there's plenty at the Fair Grounds to keep us busy. Let's go.
Race 3 (post time 2:02 pm Eastern) is a $5,000 claimer at a mile on the dirt for Louisiana-bred older horses. We like 2-Maddy's Pro: this five-year-old gelding won in a similar spot two back, but fared less well at a higher level in his last race. Now back at the level at which he seems to belong, he should get a good stalking trip, and at 5/2 he's our pick for all the money. We also like 1-Pinch Assault, to complete the exacta: this is an amazingly consistent horse who pretty much runs his race every time. We'll play Maddy's Pro to win, and box the two in the exacta. The bets: Fair Grounds Race 3, $15 to win on 2-Maddy's Pro, and $5 Exacta Box, 2 (Maddy's Pro) with 3 (PInch Assault).
The 4th (post time 3:06 pm Eastern) is a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint for Louisiana-bred 3-year-olds. Few of the 10 entrants have turf experience, which might make handicapping the race a guessing game, but we've found a horse we like: it's 6-Asongforyou. This boy broke his maiden in a turf sprint in the fall, in Indiana, of all places, and then finished off the board in a dirt race at the Fair Grounds in November. Now on the surface we think he prefers, we think he finishes on top here, as he's got high speed in a race where most of the runners lack it. He's also out of the powerful Tom Amoss barn, which is a plus. We'll bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 4, $15 to win on 6-Asongforyou.
The 7th in New Orleans (post time 4:42 pm Eastern) is a good one-mile dirt allowance for older horses. There's a field of seven. There's a lot of early speed in here, which we think sets up the race for a stalker. We like 2-Artie's Rumor. This 4-year-old gelding is coming off a few grass races in which he ran very well, and his trainer, Bernard Flint, wins at a 38% clip with the turf-to-dirt angle. At 9/2, we think he fits, both from a current form standpoint and with how we think the race shape will develop. We'll bet him to win. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 7, $15 to win on 2-Artie's Rumor.
The nightcap at the Fair Grounds, Race 9 (post time 5:46 pm Eastern) is a 5 1/2 furlong dirt sprint for 3-year-old Louisiana-bred maidens. We're going for a longshot here: it's 8-St Basil, who's 12-1 on the morning line. He's finished out of the money in two Maiden Special Weight races at Delta Downs, but now drops in for a tag. We think that wakes him up, and it makes him worth a bet in a race with many runners who look like they cannot win. It's a stab, but we'll take it. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 9, $10 to win on 8-St Basil.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.