Saturday races at Aqueduct, Laurel Park and Parx
Late season first time starters. Although there are still plenty of 3-year-olds who have not made a start, questions about why begin to arise this time of year. Obviously, turf horses in the region will still be waiting for April to appear but for everyone else, it’s about time to roll these horses out. Otherwise, owners start whining and no trainer wants a whiny owner (whiny owners move their horses, not a good outcome for trainers). So look at some of the firsters and focus on their work tab to see whether they are late maturing (regular works over a long time) or something set them back (break in works, often followed by more rapid/frequent works). The late maturing horses deserve a long look especially when going long first out. The horses with an unexplained break are best watched.
Picks for March 16, 2019:
50s, windy and cooler. Almost perfect race weather….the wind is not perfect.
Aqueduct Race 2
Maiden for 3-year-old fillies at 8f. 1-Distorted News is the poster child for the late developer. No horse really needs 12 timed works over a 5-month period to get to the races but here she is. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez is not famous for being overly patient with developing horses, either. But the big knocks here are the poor dam productivity numbers (no winners from 2 starters) and the lousy sale price of this one as a yearling. She brought less than half of Distorted Humor’s yearling average that year. Instead look to find some value with 3-Stay Smart, a 4th time starter that looks to be figuring it out. She is coming off a brief rest but that may have been due to weather as much as any issues. Kelly Breen and Eric Cancel win at 56% together so that contributes, too.
$10 W/P/S 3-Stay Smart
Aqueduct Race 3 Correction Stakes
Older fillies and mares at 6f. This is where 1-Sower belongs. She had been entered recently a distance beyond her abilities only to be scratched in favor of the other half of an entry. After running her career best speed figure while fading to second last out, the cut back in distance of a furlong makes this filly the pick for the race and of the FOUR Linda Rice entrants. Obviously, its nice to have enough quality horses in your care to make sure $100K go for your top pick.
$10 W/P/S 1-Sower
$1 Super Box 1/2/4/5 the all Linda Rice Superfecta.
Laurel Race 1
Maiden $10K 3-year-old fillies at 6f. Two first-time starters here with very different work tabs and breeding. 5-S P F Ninetynine is from a young sire that seems to do well with firsters (19%) and she has 5 works in 6 weeks so go is now. On the other hand, 10-Dancing Contessa, has a 5-month gap in works and is by a sire who has yet to have a first time winner. In an otherwise nondescript field, go with the better intentioned firster.
$10 W/P/S 5-S P F Ninetynine
Laurel Race 7 Beyond the Wire Stakes
3-year-old fillies at 8f. This mile challenge reunites the top three finishers from last month’s 7f Wide Country. Don’t be surprised if they don’t run near of the top of this one, too. 1-Crafty’s Dream gets the services of Sheldon Russell as Trevor McCarthy went elsewhere in the race. This one hasn’t shown next level turn of foot but should be there at the end. 8-Our Super Freak ran second in that last one and was ridden hard to get there. The pedigree says the distance should be easy but the last race raises questions. 7-Las Setas keeps getting better with faster tracks and longer distances. One of three stakes winners for the dam, Katy Voss has a good one here.
$10 W/P/S 7-Las Setas
$1 Trifecta 7/1,8/1,8
Parx Race 7
PA bred allowance for fillies and mares at 8f. This second level allowance will be all about class. If 7-Tiz Fair has the class to shake loose and stay away from these, look for a repeat of her gate to wire performance from last time but there are classier horses on the rail. The issue is that both 1-Mill and Gloria and 2-Smokinpaddylassie are coming off rests that appear unplanned.
$10 W/P/S 7-Tiz Fair
And now for some quickies . . . real quick quickies . . .
Aqueduct Race 8
6-Trip Ups makes the trip up I-95 for a trainer that only does that when he is well meaning.
Laurel Race 4
9-Stoney Bennett comes down I-95 after going through the first level allowance in NY two back. That race should win here.
Laurel Race 6
12-Federal Walk may need to just stay outside after drifting badly in his last two despite winning. The added distance may be his undoing but the M/L can’t be overlooked.
Laurel Race 8 - Private Terms Stakes
The invasion of Florida riders race. 3-AlwaysMining gets Danny Centeno to make the flight for the mount with the hopes of going 5 for 5 on this one. The speed will be just outside with 4-Joevia getting Nik Juarez to come from Florida, too. No easy leads in this one.
Laurel Race 9 - Conniver Stakes
11-No Picnic will get overlooked because of the recent race levels and her last out performance but she made up four spots after almost falling down at the start last out. A better start and a big pay day awaits.
Laurel Race 10 - Not for Love Stakes
5-Laki is super consistent and should win the race that looks very similar to the Bender that he won in December at this distance.