Horse Racing: Garrity warms up at Oaklawn, plus Gulfstream, NoLa
It's a Thursday in horsey land, and just like in our younger, Thirsty Thursday days, we are going to look at the day as a way to get ready for the weekend. But rather than marinating our liver in Molson Export Ale, we instead are going to gird our loins for the big day at Oaklawn Park this coming Saturday by looking closely at the card there today. And we'll take a peek at the races at Gulfstream Park and the Fair Grounds as well -- we'll throw them in for lagniappe, as they say in NoLa.
The good news is that the weather in Hot Springs is supposed to be dry and pleasant through the weekend. We are handicapping the card with the expectation that the dirt will be fast (Oaklawn, as a true throwback track, has no turf course). Let's go.
The 2nd race at Oaklawn (post time: 2:57 pm Eastern) is a $40,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies running 6 furlongs. The inside horse, 1-Essie, is pretty close to the embodiment of handicapping perfection: She has tactical speed, she is superior in the speed figure department, she is handled by an exceptionally skilled trainer, and she drops from a straight maiden race into maiden claiming company, and as we've noted before, this is the biggest class drop in racing. The only thing we don't like about her is the post: The rail, in a sprint like this, is bad, but we think Essie has enough ability to overcome it. We will not get anywhere near her 2-1 morning line price, but we will jump all over her anyway, and pound her to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 2, $30 win on 1-Essie.
Race 5 in Hot Springs (post time: 4:19 pm Eastern) is another maiden claimer, this one a $10k affair for horses 3 and up; they're going 6 furlongs. This is a weak field, which is not all that surprising at this level, but we think that sets up the race for a longshot. Our pick is 12-Golden Seal. This 4-year-old has been away since October of 2017, which is a long time, but he was running at a very high level, in Maiden Special company at Belmont and Saratoga, and he ran passably in those big-league races. He drops into a much, much easier spot here, and he's handled by a trainer skilled at getting horses to fire off layoffs. Moreover, he's had the biggest equipment change in racing -- he's been gelded -- and his morning workouts suggest he's ready to run. We'll make him our top pick at 8-1. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 5, $20 to win on 12-Golden Seal.
The 6th at Oaklawn (post time: 4:46 pm Eastern) is another sprint, a conditioned $10k claimer at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 and up. We like the favorite here, 12-Redeal. This 4-year-old filly has won her last two races, on synthetic and dirt, at sprint and route distances, and she has tactical speed, good form, and an outside post, which add up, we think, to a victory. We will bet her to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 6, $15 to win on 12-Redeal.
In South Florida, the weather is expected to be good, and the racing surfaces at Gulfstream Park fast and firm. Race 9 (post time: 5:17 pm Eastern) is a good turf allowance, with older horses going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. There's a heavy favorite here, 4-Ticonderoga, and we've tried to get around him, but can't: he's too good. Trained by Chad Brown, either of his last two races would be good enough to win here, and we think he may actually even be better today. We don't like the 7/5 odds, but we will go with the old Jay Cronley axiom -- every winner has value -- and pick him on top. The bet: Gulfstream Park Race 9, $25 to win on 4-Ticonderoga.
At the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the weather should also be favorable, and the turf firm. We've looked at the 8th race (post time: 4:53 pm Eastern), a 5 furlong turf sprint allowance for older females. We like 4-Riverside Walk: this English-bred 4-year old filly is coming off a short layoff -- her last race was in January -- but her work in the morning suggests that she's ready to run. She has ability, and will probably be a mid-pace stalker in this race, and that should work, as there's enough speed in the race to make a front-running winner unlikely. We'll put her on top. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 8, $15 to win on 4-Riverside Walk.
That's all for today. We'll be back on Saturday, with a lulu of a card from Oaklawn, plus the other national stakes races. Spring is near; the Derby trail is heating up; it's a good time to be alive, and an even better time to be a racing fan. Until then, good luck at the windows.