Horse Racing: Garrity picks the Gotham and other Saturday stakes
We are not going to lie: The absence of racing at Santa Anita Park today hurts. Just like the first Saturday in May is for the Kentucky Derby, the first Saturday in March is for the Santa Anita Handicap. It is a major race with a rich history; it has been won by all-time greats like Noor, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry, Shared Belief, and Seabiscuit. Every year, it is the first major spring race in the handicap division, and as such is a reminder, an equine metronome, if you will, that the winter is just about over, and that a rich and rewarding spring and summer of racing is soon to come. We vividly remember standing at the rail in Arcadia for the 2001 Big 'Cap, after an empty-the-pockets win play -- we bet every cent we had on our person -- and watching Tiznow waltz home by five lengths (we thought even money was an absolute gift; Tiznow should have been 1/5).
That Santa Anita will be dark today frankly blows. But we will channel the Horseplayer's Serenity Prayer, and try to accept that which we cannot control. Instead, we will turn to the races that are being run -- and there are some good ones today. We will make our usual note here, that we expect all races discussed here to be run on fast dirt and firm turf. But with that out of the way, let's go.
We'll start with the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct, which goes to post at 5:09 pm Eastern. It's a mile on the dirt. This is the first of two Kentucky Derby preps today; there would have been three, but the San Felipe at Santa Anita has been cancelled because of the track situation in Arcadia (an aside: Many of the horses scheduled to run in the San Felipe will be running at Oaklawn Park next week in the Rebel, which has now been split into two divisions. Make sure to mark next Saturday, March 16, on your calendar; it should be a doozy). The headliner in the Gotham is Instagrand, who is undefeated and unchallenged in two career starts.
Winning both of his races by 10 lengths has put Instagrand in just about everyone's list of top 10 Kentucky contenders, and while he has certainly been visually impressive in his races, especially his romp in the Best Pal at Del Mar in August, there are several reasons to think that he is a very vulnerable favorite: He has yet to run a truly fast race (his Beyer Speed Figures in his two-year-old races were 88 and 92), he is coming off a long layoff, and his two wins were against short fields (he beat five breaking his maiden at Los Alamitos in June, and four winning the Best Pal). We learned a long time ago to be wary of horses who looked good beating up on five-horse fields in California, but who now come East and fast much tougher tests.
And the Gotham will be a much tougher test: there are some talented runners here. Instagrand may win, but we think that at odds-on, he is a play against.
The Gotham looks like it will have a swift early pace. Mind Control, Much Better, Instagrand, Not That Brady, and Tikhvin Flew all have abundant early speed, and we think there will be a battle up front the first half mile. We think the pace will be swift enough, in fact, to set up the race for a closer, a horse who will pass the tired pacesetters and hit the finish line first. The fact that mile races at Aqueduct are run around one turn will exacerbate the early pace situation: these races tend to be run more like sprints than mile races around two turns, because in the early stages of the race, the horses are running in a straight line, like a sprint, rather than around a turn, the way two-turn route races are run.
We like Haikal. Trained by Kieran McLaughlin, he has steadily improved since the fall, and we think his race pattern suggests an improvement today. He's also shown the ability to close: He's won each of his last two starts coming from off the pace. We like his running style, we like his trainer, and we like the fact that his pedigree suggests he will like the distance. But most of all, we like his price: he's 6-1, and we'll take it. The bet: Aqueduct Race 10, $20 to win on 5-Haikal.
There are a pair of graded stakes at Tampa Bay Downs today: the Grade 3 Florida Oaks goes to post at 4:50 pm Eastern, and the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby 35 minutes later. The Florida Oaks is 3-year-old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf, the Tampa Bay Derby, a prep for the Derby in Kentucky, is 3-year-olds going the same distance on dirt.
The Florida Oaks is a wide open betting race with no clear favorite: the top choice on the morning line, Concrete Rose, is a tepid 7/2. We like -- no, make that love -- 1-La Feve: This filly is trained by Chad Brown, who seemingly wins every other turf stakes race these days, and while her last start was a dud -- she finished a dull third in a stakes at Gulfstream -- it was her first start in North America, and many horses need a race in that situation. Her prior form in France is good, certainly good enough to handle this field, and though we don't think we'll get her 5-1 morning line price, she is still a strong play on top. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10, $25 to win on 1-La Feve.
The Tampa Bay Derby, after years of relative obscurity, has become an increasingly important prep race for the Kentucky Derby in recent years, and a glance at the past performances of today's edition is proof of that: this is a deep and talented field. One could make a case for just about any of these 11 runners.
We like 4-Dream Maker. This son of super-sire Tapit won an allowance race at the Fair Grounds last out, and we think that two-turn experience is huge here. We think he moves forward off that race, and stamps himself a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. That makes him a win pick at 4-1 for us. We also like the favorite, 7-Win Win Win. He has the field's best last-race Beyer Speed figure (99, earned in a sprint), and we think he will complete the exacta. The bets: Tampa Bay Downs Race 11, $20 to win on 4-Dream Maker, and a $5 Exacta Box, 4 with 7 (Dream Maker-Win Win Win).
At Oaklawn, there are a pair of stakes, the overnight, $150,000 Hot Springs (Race 7), and the Grade 3 Honeybee (Race 9). They go off at 5:04 pm and 6:03 pm Eastern, respectively. The track at Oaklawn is fast as we write this, but there is a chance of rain; we'll note again here that these picks are for a fast track, as we're expecting, or maybe hoping, that the rain will hold off.
The Hot Springs is a 6-furlong dirt sprint for horses 4-and-up. Our analysis of the race will be brief, because we think it's very nearly a layover: 1-Whitmore, towers over this field. He's been running against the best sprinters in the country -- his last race was a game second in the Breeders Cup Sprint -- and he faces a much softer field here. It looks like he's going to have to fall down to lose, and his odds reflect that: he's even money on the morning line, and figures to be much shorter when the gates open. You can bet him to win if you like, but we do not recommend win bets on horses we think will be 2/5. We'll make this a race to watch, not to bet.
The Honeybee is a much better betting race. This is a mile-and-a-sixteenth on dirt for 3-year-old fillies. We're expecting another speed duel here, several of the runners, especially Motion Emotion, Raintree Starlet, and Marathon Queen, look like need-the-lead types. We think this is another race that sets up for a runner from off the pace.
We like 6-Power Gal. This Japanese-bred daughter of Empire Maker won the Martha Washington at Oaklawn last out, proving that she likes the racing surface in Hot Springs, and also that she can come off the pace. We think she gets a dream trip, sitting on the rail about 4 lengths off the dueling pacesetters, and moves at the top of the stretch when the speed horses start to falter. We'll take her 9/2 morning line price, and bet her to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 9, $20 to win on 6-Power Gal.
That's all for today. Enjoy the races. We'll hope all athletes, equine and human, make it back safe and sound. Good luck at the windows.