It may not look like it if you look out the window, at least if you live in the Northeast, but we are very near the end of racing's dark period, and we are about to enter the meat of the Kentucky Derby prep season. It is March, after all, and this is when the racing calendar turns a page. It may feel like winter now, but in just a few weeks, we will be well into spring mode, and the process of separating the Derby contenders from the pretenders will be well underway.
It is perhaps for this reason that opening the Form this time of year creates an excitement that has been missing recently. Sure, it's a Tuesday in early March, in the shank of winter; but it's also the time of year when seasonal changes will begin in earnest. This is powerful stuff, and it is one of the reasons that horse racing is the greatest sport in the world: Every year, there is a new crop of 3-year-olds, and every year, the very best of them will be vying for a spot in the world's greatest horse race, which very well may be the world's greatest sporting spectacle. There may be snow on the ground, but this is a time of renewal, and each card brings us one step closer to it.
So we will dive into today's action, which features a very good Mardi Gras card from the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Unlike most days during the week, we don't need to look at multiple tracks to find playable races; there's plenty to keep us busy at the Fair Grounds. So let's go.
Race 6 at the Fair Grounds (post time: 3:53 pm Eastern) is an allowance for horses 4 and up who have won only a maiden race. There are some horses here who appear to have ability, but a pass through the past performances shows a deciding factor in our assessment of the race: there is a noticeable lack of runners with early speed. There are a few horses here with ability, but most run best as deep closers, and these animals need a solid pace to run at. They are not going to get it today.
We like 10-High Mounte: this Irish-bred 4-year-old colt trained by Jack Sisterson is very well-bred, and being out of turf champion Sea the Stars and a Kalanisi mare, he's bred top and bottom for grass. He lost a race on synthetic in his North American debut, but came back a month ago to win a maiden special at the Fair Grounds a month ago. We think this horse has potential; more important, we think he's got some early speed, and that will put him in the right spot, on or near the lead. Couple good tactical position with a good closing kick, and we like High Mounte to come right back and win again today. The morning line is 10-1; we don't think we'll get that, but we should still get a generous price. The bet is: Fair Grounds, Race 6, $20 win on 10-High Mounte.
The 7th in New Orleans is another good race, a 6 furlong dirt sprint allowance (non-winners of 3) for fillies and mares 4 and up. 6-Salt Bae, is a strong play here: on her last two races on fast tracks, she has won impressively; she'll get fast dirt today, and that makes her our pick. She's 7/2 on the morning line. The bet is: Fair Grounds, Race 7, $20 win on 6-Salt Bae
We catch a stakes at the Fair Grounds today in the 8th, and a midweek stakes is appropriate, since today is Mardi Gras. Laissez les bon temps rouler, as they say in N'awlins, and we'll let the good times roll by trying to catch a third consecutive winner. This is a $75k overnight stakes for older females at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. 6- Oxford Comma, is our pick: she's won 9 races in 13 starts, and on turf she's 3-for-4. Her only grass loss, in fact, was a month ago, on this course, when 3-Excessivespending, bested her by a half length. We think Oxford Comma turns the tables today, and we like her 3-1 morning-line win odds. We also like 3-Excessivespending to complete the exacta. The bets, then, are: Fair Grounds, Race 8, $15 win on 6-Oxford Comma. Fair Grounds, Race 8, $10 exacta, 6 with 3-(Oxford Comma with Excessivespending)
Since these three races are in succession, races 6-7-8 on the Fair Grounds card, we are also going to leverage our opinions in these races with a couple of multi-race exotics. We'll play both daily doubles (Races 6-7 and 7-8), and we'll also hammer a cold Pick 3 on all three races. These bets are: Fair Grounds, Race 6, $10 double, 10 with 6 (High Mounte with Salt Bae)Fair Grounds Race 6, $5 Pick 3, 10 with 6 with 6 (High Mounte with Salt Bae with Oxford Comma) Fair Grounds Race 7, $10 double, 6 with 6 (Salt Bae with Oxford Comma)
That's all for today. We'll save the atoning for Ash Wednesday tomorrow, so enjoy the Mardi Gras card from the Fair Grounds. And good luck at the windows.