Horse Racing: Garrity picks Wednesday races - 4 tracks in 3 states
For today, we've looked at the cards from Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs in Florida, Sam Houston in Texas, and Turf Paradise in Phoenix. None of these cards will exactly knock a horseplayer's socks off, but the lack of a blockbuster card is hardly earth-shattering news on the last Wednesday in February. We will take this opportunity to note the benefits of simulcasting, where we don't need a strong card from any track; we can pick and choose races that catch our fancy from all over the country (and we've found a few). We'll also note that while the weather forecast for both Miami and Tampa calls for a chance of thunderstorms, we are handicapping all races for fast dirt and firm turf, with the exception of Sam Houston, which should be wet (muddy or sloppy). If it does rain outside Texas, proceed with caution. With that out of the way, let's go.
The 7th at Gulfstream (post time 3:39 pm Eastern) is a 1 1/16 mile allowance/optional claiming race for older males. We like 6-Diamond Bachelor, on top. He finished second in a mile race at this level a few weeks ago, and his effort in that race was even better than it looked, as he set the pace on a track biased against early speed. With a fair track, he should take them all the way. Moreover, he's in for a $25K tag here, whereas most other runners are not, but that is not a bad thing: this is a pet angle we've long liked, the horse whose trainer picks the "optional claiming" window rather than the "allowance" window. This means that the horse does not fit the allowance condition -- because he's won too many races. Trained by Jorge Navarro, who's having a great meet at Gulfstream, winning at a 34% clip, we'll take the 5-1 morning line price, and bet $20 to win on 6-Diamond Bachelor.
Race 10 at Gulfstream (post time 5:12 pm Eastern) is $20K maiden claimers, 4-and-older, going a mile and a sixteenth on turf. This is an underwhelming field with one runner who sticks out: it's 9-Trump's Kitten. Sired by leading turf stallion Kitten's Joy, he should be able to beat a weak field. His 2-1 morning line price is no bargain, but we'll take it, and bet $10 to win on 9-Trump's Kitten.
Race 4 at Tampa Bay (post time 1:55 pm Eastern) is $32,000 maiden claiming race for three-year-old fillies at a mile on the turf. We like 7-Sundrenched. This filly drops from straight maiden to maiden claiming, and catches a field filled with early speed, which should suit her closing running style. She's 3-1; we will bet $20 to win on 7-Sundrenched.
The 8th at Tampa (post time 4:00 pm Eastern) is a 5 1/2 furlong, $8,000 claiming dirt sprint for horses 3-and-up. The pick here is 11-Mulled Wine:He's got the right speed figures, and, as a stalker from an outside post, the right running style. We'll bet $10 to win on him at 9/2. If the track does turn up sloppy, ditch the 11 and take the 1-Jack of Spades: He's a wet-track freak who moves way up on an off track.
Race 8 at Sam Houston (post time 4:20 pm Eastern) is an allowance/optional claimer featuring older females running 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. This is a wet-track special play: we like 1-Skirt Warning. This filly loves the slop, and is 6-1: We will, so long as it's wet, take her on top, and bet $10 on her to win.
At Turf Paradise, the 3rd race (post time 2:55 pm Eastern)is a starter allowance for older horses at 7 1/2 furlongs. 4-Kickenit, is the play here: He looks to be in the best form, and as a mid-pack turf runner, he should be able to run down the speed. We'll bet $15 on him to win at 8/5.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.