Horse Racing: Garrity’s Graded Stakes picks 6, 3 at Gulfstream

It's another Saturday, and that means another peek at the stakes racing across the country. Due to weather, there's been some juggling of scheduled races: both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park have rescheduled a couple of turf stakes, Gulfstream to Sunday, and Santa Anita to next week. But even with those defections, there's still a nice slate of races to handicap and to bet.

We'll start at Aqueduct, which runs the Grade III Withers, a Kentucky Derby prep race for three-year-olds, as the 9th race, with a post time of 4:30 pm. After a week that would make Nanook shiver, the Big A finally catches a break with the weather: it's supposed to be around 35 degrees at Withers post time, and this will feel positively balmy. And it will be dry, which should ensure a fast track.

This is an interesting and competitive race, with seven runners who appear to be fairly evenly matched. We like 5-Lucky Lee: he comes off a very fast allowance win at Parx, and he is handled by ace trainer John Servis, of Smarty Jones fame. He's shown versatility in terms of running style: he has won both setting the pace and pressing it. The trainer factor is key: Servis does not come to these races to get his picture taken; He is the only trainer in history who has a 100% win rate in both the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks (he's 1-for-1 in both). That's good enough for us: we'll take the 7-2 morning line on Lucky Lee, and we will bet $20 on him to win.

At Oaklawn Park, there is a single stakes race on the card, the Martha Washington, which goes as Race 8, with a post time of 5:38 pm. This is for three-year-old fillies, and 2-Marathon Queen, is a strong play: she comes from the powerful Steve Asmussen barn, comes off a powerful maiden win, and while she's trying two turns for the first time, she's bred to take to it like a duck takes to water. We will take her 3-1 morning-line odds all day long, and will bet $25 to win on Marathon Queen.

Santa Anita has two stakes today, the Grade III Robert B. Lewis (Race 6, post time 5:30 pm Eastern), and the Grade II San Pasquale. Both are on dirt. The Lewis features three-year-olds going a mile and a sixteenth, and the San Pasquale has older horses going nine furlongs. We will pass on the San Pasquale, as 7-Bob Baffert's McKinzie, looks like a monster, but will go off at a miserly price. His win in the Malibu on opening day at Santa Anita was as visually impressive a race as we have seen recently, and we cannot play against that; but neither can we take his odds, which will likely be something like 2/5. It's a good race to watch, as McKinzie may be a serious factor in the handicap division this year.

But the Bob Lewis is very playable, even on a track that is likely to be wet (there is rain in the forecast in Arcadia). We are very much against second choice, 5-Gunmetal Gray: His win in the Sham was aided by a track biased against speed, and that is unlikely to happen today. We like 5-Mucho Gusto, trained by Bob Baffert, we think he goes right to the front and never looks back. We'll take 8/5 on Mucho Gusto, and we'll bet $15 on him to win -- wet or dry.

We've saved Gulfstream for last. There's a trio of stakes there today: the Grade III Forward Gal, at 7 furlongs; the Grade III Swale, also at 7 furlongs; and the Grade II Holy Bull, at a mile and a sixteenth. All three races are on dirt, and all three races are restricted to three-year-olds: the Forward Gal is for fillies; the other two for males. These go as races 9, 10, and 11 at Gulfstream, with post times of 4:07 pm, 4:40 pm, and 5:13 pm.

The Forward Gal has a stickout: 4-Feedback, is trained by Chad Brown, who seems to win everything, and she was good enough to earn an 84 Beyer Speed figure breaking her maiden at Saratoga in August. If she has improved since then, and we think she probably has, then the rest of the animals are running for second money. She’s 6/5 ML.

The Swale is a more competitive race, with a nice field of 11, including some talented-looking colts like 1-Frosted Grace, 4-High Crime, 8-Seismic Jolt, and 11-Country Singer. But we like 5-Call Paul. He's trained by Jason Servis -- John's brother -- who has been winning races with incredible frequency (44% win rate at Gulfstream; this is absurd), and his figures and running style are a good fit for the race. Call Paul is 3-1 on the morning line and we’ll bet $20 on him to win.

The Holy Bull is the feature race of the day, both at Gulfstream and nationally, and that's for a good reason: a couple of these colts will probably end up in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. The most likely Derby runner here, and the star of the day, is 8-Maximum Mischief, who’s undefeated in three races. The rest of the field appears overmatched, and the odds reflect that: Maximum Mischief is even money (1-1) on the morning line, and his odds when the gates open will be much, much lower than that.

We like when stakes races are bunched together like this, because it gives us a chance to play multi-race wagers like the Pick 3. And conveniently enough, Gulfstream offers a Pick 3 on the Forward Gal-Swale-Holy Bull combination. So we will make this play in the Race 9 Pick 3:
Forward Gal: #3 (Fashion Faux Pax, 4-1),  #4 (Feedback 6/5)
Swale: #1 (Frosted Grace, 6-1), #4 (High Crime, 4-1), #5 (Call Paul, 3-1), #8 (Seismic Jolt, 6-1), #9 (Zenden, 8-1), #11 (Country Singer, 5-1)
Holy Bull: #8 (Maximum Mischief, 1-1)

The ticket is 3,4 with 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11 with 8. That's a $6 ticket at the 50-cent minimum; we will hammer that combination 5 times, for an even $30 bet.

That's it for today. Enjoy the races, and good luck at the windows.