Horse Racing: McMudder’s Friday Picks
Good luck and watch out for horses short on training. With the adverse weather, many horses have been forced indoors and have not trained for several days. For horses accustomed to a little blow out shortly before race day, exercising on the shed row does not cut it. As a result, look out for horses a little fresher than normal with some showing earlier speed than normal and others acting “off”. The key is to see who has succeeded in similar conditions and look there.
Picks for February 1, 2019:
The freezer is going, but may not be gone in time for races today. The biggest impact was on training since race days were cancelled or were dark already.
Aqueduct Race 1
Claiming $45K at 6f for older boys. Nice group of horses here led by M/L favorite 2-Still Krz, a fast but lightly raced 7 year old. His race spacing and diminished speed figs as well as lack of success at Aqueduct forces other considerations. The well considered 4-Deep Sea looks well intentioned coming off a lifetime best speed fig but that came on a good track and today should be deep and tiring. Look instead at 5-Aristocratic making his first start for Chris Englehart in NY. Consistent sort that won at this distance last out but comes with back class, too. Englehart’s 29% strike rate with horses making their first start for him is impressive, too.
$10 W/P/S 5-Aristocratic
$1 Trifecta box 2,4,5
Aqueduct Race 4
$62.5K optional claimer for older fillies and mares at 6f. Looking past the two mares to the outside coming off the 3+ month layoffs may cost Mick but he goes to 2-Estilo Fermenino out of the barn of Steve Asmussen. After a slow start in NY in 2018, Asmussen has hit his stride and has lots of live horses remaining in NY this winter. This lightly race filly wins on her best day and that day should be in her future.
$10 W/P/S 2-Estilo Fermenino
Laurel Park Race 4
Optional claimer $50K for older fillies and mares at 6f. 3-Lady by Choice loves Laurel and won at this distance over this track last out. She looks super tough here and the Shanghai Bobbys look to like the sprint distances. 3/1 is generous for this filly.
$20 W/P/S 3-Lady by Choice
Laurel Park Race 5
Maryland Bred allowance for fillies and mares at 8f. An inconsistent group that move up with the absence of horses from other states. The pick here is Sheldon Russell, the jockey. Why? Because he has chosen to ride 6-Beyond Forever after riding two other horses in their last efforts. After a 2nd and a 3rd at this level in her prior to races, this one looks well placed to break through after the brief freshening, an angle that trainer Robbie Bailes is successful with to the tune of a +$0.73/$2.
$10 W/P/S 6-Beyond Forever
And now for some quickies . . .
Aqueduct Race 7
5-Stone Breaker was a rocket ship last out and not bad first time. Breeding says the distance should not be a problem. Another big speed figure and people will be remorseful that they did not drop on this boy when they could.
Laurel Race 8
The entry of 1-Bust Another and 1A-Shoe Loves Shoe looks super tough in here. Trevor McCarthy is named on both so only one may run. It shouldn’t matter; both are high quality and should be well suited to the jockey’s style.