Horse Racing: Garrity handicaps the Pegasus World Cup
It's a big day today: it’s Pegasus World Cup day at Gulfstream Park. Though we might have qualms about the legitimacy of the Pegasus as an event -- it lacks the pedigree of other big events in the world of horse racing -- there is no question that as a handicapping and gambling endeavor it is first-class. So we'll pull on our big boy handicapping pants, dive right into the gloriously complex past performances, and loosen the rubber band around the bankroll: There’s money to be made today.
Before we get to the card at Gulfstream, let’s get the non-Pegasus stakes races out of the way. At Aqueduct, they’re running the Jazil Stakes as Race 8. This is Grade III race at 9 furlongs, for older horses on the dirt. The outside horse, 7-Sunny Ridge, is a standout, and should win the race at a very short price. Since he will likely be 3/5, we will not make him an official pick, but he's worth a play if the public lets him get away at anywhere near his even-money morning line price.
It's Opening Day at Oaklawn, and the feature there is the 8th, the American Beauty Stakes at 6 furlongs on the dirt. 5-Vertical Oak is a standout, but at 7/5 on the morning line, he is not a win-bet play.
Now, to Gulfstream.
Race 7 is the Hurricane Bertie, a 7-furlong dirt sprint for older fillies and mares. We like 2-Dream Pauline: she’s never run a bad race, and the pace scenario for the race sets up well for her. We'll take 3-1, and bet $10 to win on Dream Pauline.
Race 8 is the La Prevoyante, older fillies and mares going 1 3/16 mile on the turf. We like 7-Si Que Es Buena: We think she will relish the distance, and recent efforts indicate she is primed for a big effort. We will bet $10 on her to win, and also play a $5 exacta with her and Chad Brown’s entrant, 9-Santa Monica. That's a 5-9 exacta box, which will cost $10.
The W.L. McKnight is Race 10, and it's A) a mile and a half on the grass for older horses, B) a wide open race lacking a clear favorite, and C) the best betting opportunity of the day. We love 8-Hunting Horn. Trained by Aidan O'Brien and owned by Coolmore, this horse last year ran against some of the best horses in the world, butting heads with the likes of Enable in the famed Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris. The O’Brien-Coolmore folks don’t come to these races for fun: we think Hunting Horn is here to win. Getting the the 8-1 morning line seems unlikely, but even 4-1 or 5-1 is good enough for us: we'll bet $30 on the nose of Hunting Horn.
Race 11 is the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, and it is another 1 3/16 grass race, for horses 3 and older. Man, what a race: Magic Wand (another O'Brien-Coolmore runner), Yoshida (Bill Mott-Winstar Farms), Bricks and Mortar (Chad Brown), and Catapult (John Sadler) all look good, but we are going elsewhere: we like 4-Aerolithe. This Japanese-bred mare is making her first start in North America, and is running against the boys, but we think she’s up to the task: She beat males repeatedly in Japan, and for those not paying attention, top-flight Japanese horses are world-class, as was proved when Yoshida, who was also bred in Japan, won the Woodward at Saratoga last year. We think 8-1 on Aerolithe is a terrific price; we'll bet $20 on her to win.
The 12th and last race on the card is the Pegasus World Cup, at a mile and and an eighth on the dirt. The headliner here is 5-Accelerate, whose campaign last year was brilliant; it took an undefeated Triple Crown winner to deny him Horse of the Year. All kinds of wise guys are trying to beat Accelerate in this race, but we think that's a fool’s errand: he’s the best horse, he’s the fastest horse, and he is going to win. We’ll play against the wise guys, and bet $20 on 5-Accelerate, at 9/5.
We would be remiss -- we'd have to join Horseplayers Anonymous -- if we did not make a few multi-race wagers. On big days, the Pick anythings -- 3, 4, 5, etc. -- are frequently the best opportunities for a giant score. We're going to play the Pick 3 that starts with Race 8, and we're absolutely going to dive into the Race 9 Pick 4, which culminates with the Pegasus World Cup. Here are the tickets (names of all horses are below):
Race 8 Pick 3: 5, 7, 9 with 1,6 with 2, 7, 8. This is a $9 ticket at the 50-cent base wager level.
Race 9 Pick 4: 1,6 with 7,8 with 1, 2, 4, 9 with 5. This is an $8 ticket at the 50-cent base wager level.
Pick 3 / Pick 4 runners:
Race 8: #5 (Tricky Escape), #7 (Si Que Es Buena), #9 (Santa Monica)
Race 9: #1 (Coal Front), #6 (Aztec Sense)
Race 10: #2 (Soglio, Pick 3 only), #7 (Canessar), #8 (Hunting Horn)
Race 11: #1 (Magic Wand), #2 (Yoshida), #4 (Aerolithe), #9 (Catapult) Race
12: #5 (Accelerate)
That's all for today -- it's a smorgasbord of top-shelf racing and wagering. We hope you enjoy it, both from a sporting and parimutuel perspective. Good luck at the windows.