Bal Harbour is running in the Toboggan Stakes.
Bal Harbour is running in the Toboggan Stakes.Joe Labozzetta Photo/Aqueduct

Horse Racing: McMudder’s Saturday Picks

Races at Aqueduct, Laurel and Parx

Good luck and look for short fields. Why? Lots of horses go south for the Winter and the recent herpes outbreak at Parx has eliminated any horses shipping out from there. As a result, scratches are up at other East Coast tracks and will be until everyone gets used to the new normal. Short fields make it more likely to finds horses with singular advantages in races. These include lone speed, lone closer, off track advantage and more. Several examples of this yesterday with the lone speed angle being strong at Laurel early in the day.

Picks for January 19, 2019:

Snow, rain or dark of night? That is the question. The answer . . . who knows . . . again? Precipitation should have cleared before race time so the main variables will be the amount of moisture and the temperature. Play it by ear for track conditions. The only known is that it will be cold and wet.

Aqueduct Race 2
Claiming $14K non3 at 9f for boys. This one is full of horses that once held great promise but time is rapidly passing them by. It is stunning that 6-Admiral Blue still has this condition but that’s what 2 for 25 lifetime does for you. His wins are all on off tracks so he should be tough but will be at short odds. Instead, look at the Maryland invader, 4-Sandy Lane, to continue his good form. He lost to a Stakes winner last out on a sloppy oval at Laurel and breeding says 9f is doable.
$20 W/P/S 4-Sandy Lane

Aqueduct Race 5 Toboggan Stakes (Grade 3)
7 furlongs is a specialist distance and there are four in the field with Stakes wins at between 6 and 7 furlongs. So Mick is going with the other horse. 4-Bal Harbor has been running at route distances for over a year where he is pretty darn good. I don’t think he is in the race just to make it go since his recent races were very good and he won in the mud last out. And the payoff for a Todd Pletcher horse may be surprisingly good.
$10 W/P/S 4-Bal Harbour

Laurel Race 6
It’s all about 5-Sparty here. This is a big step up for him but he won at this distance in the slop last out and that effort should win here. The others worth watching include 7-Flying the Flag and 9-Eagle Pass, both are very lightly raced but bred for the off going and the distance.
$10 W/P/S 5-Sparty
$0.50 Trifecta box 5,7,9

Parx Race 4
Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-old boys. One horse matters here. 4-Spun to Run has run speed figures that should have the connections thinking about where they will be in early May but he has yet to win. The two races in NY were excellent and he gets a softer field and runs out of his stall today. By the way, his Mom and only sib to race are both Stakes winners. He is not available in the Futures Book. He will be on Sunday.
$10 Win 4-Spun to Run

And now for some quickies….

Laurel Park Race 4
2-Global Citizen
. See that last race? DQ to last? Can we look past that DQ? Yep, even with a lesser race he looks good in here and gets Trevor McCarthy. Pedigree screams slop excellence.

Parx Races 6 and 7
Why combine races? Because Mick is playing a trainer angle. A 2% trainer angle. Kimberly Christman has 3-Team Ribot in the 6th and 3-Blue Shine in the 7th. Both have good off track pedigrees and she gets 19% rider Edwin Rivera to ride. Bet one, bet both, bet a 3-3 Double.

Aqueduct Race 9
6-Planet Trailblazer was dangled for $7500 twice at Parx by the connections and he won both times. Now he goes back to NY (quarantine at Parx forced this?) and gets a soft field. If he keeps this up, somebody will halter him.

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