Horse Racing: Garrity’s Stakes picks for Nola, ’Zona & Santa Anita

It's another gray day here in the Northeast -- it's a consecutive streak worthy of Winx, or at least Lou Gehrig -- and we're still in the winter doldrums, as least far as the racing calendar is concerned: the opening of Oaklawn Park is still a week away, and the first serious Derby preps like the Fountain of Youth and the Gotham don't come until March. But despite the calendar, there are still some interesting and playable stakes races today. We are determined degenerates here, and we can find some bet-worthy races even during the dregs of January.

The Toboggan, the 5th Race at Aqueduct, is an interesting race, a rare deep-winter graded stakes (Grade III) in New York. But the field came up short -- just five runners -- and the weather forecast is so bad that it makes the Ozone Park neighborhood around the Big A look good. We'll pass on the race -- though if the delightful mix of snow, ice, and rain comes before the race, 3-Colonel Sharp, is worth a flutter on a sloppy or muddy track. He's a proven lover of wet tracks, and should thrive if the going is off.

There'a good card today at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, with some eminently bettable overnight stakes featuring deep, contentious fields, but the one we like is the lone graded stakes on the card, the Grade III Lecomte, which is for three-year-olds at a mile and 70 yards and which goes off as the 12th. This is an early Derby prep race -- a prep of a prep of a prep, if you will -- and this is one of the most wide open races in recent memory. No horses stick out. And because of that, we're going to take a shot at a big price: we like 9-Mo Speed, who is a positively juicy 20-1 on the morning line.

This horse is a perfect example of unintended consequences: He ran in two mile turf races at Woodbine in the fall, finishing a good third in his debut and breaking his maiden the second time out. His connections sent him to Louisiana for the winter, presumably to run on the grass: he was entered in an allowance race on the sod a month ago.

But that race was rained off the turf, and Mo Money proved that he is more than a grass specialist by winning smartly. He will need to improve to win this, but we think he can: three-year-olds can improve dramatically, and quickly, at this time of year, and we think he moves forward today. Out of Uncle Mo, he's bred to love dirt, so at a giant price, he's worth a play: we'll bet $25 on him to win. And as insanity insurance, we'll bet $10 on him to place.

We're also heading out to Turf Paradise in Arizona, where the track is fast and speed is king. The 7th Race is an overnight stakes, the Hank Mills Sr., at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, and there is a standout here: 8-Hardcore Troubador. He has the early speed that is a must on the Turf Paradise racing surface, but also has the endurance to last through the finish line. We think he stalks early, puts away the other speed horses at the top of the stretch, and wins clearly. We'll take his 9/5 morning-line price, and we'll bet $25 on him to win.

For a nightcap, we'll head out to Santa Anita, where, after a week of heavy rain, the track seems to have dried out, and should be fast. The Palos Verdes is a Grade II sprint at 6 furlongs on the dirt for older horses. There is a giant standout here: 7-Roy H was last seen winning the Breeders Cup Sprint, and considering that he is facing a much weaker field, he figures to dominate the race at a miserly price, something like 2/5.

Which is why we are juiced to take a stand against him: It is very common for horses to run bad races first out after the Breeders Cup: they lose at very short prices with enough regularity that we are just about obligated to look elsewhere here. So we'll throw out Roy H and we'll go with 4-Kanthaka. This race is loaded with early speed, and we think a suicidal early pace is likely; Kanthaka has run his best races making a late run from off the pace. Kanthaka is a lightly raced 4-year-old who seems to be improving, so we'll take 4-1 on him, and we'll bet $15 to win. We'll also bet $10 on him to show: Roy H just might cause a negative show pool, and if he finishes out of the money, the show payouts will be boxcars. We'll play against the bridge jumpers by throwing a sawbuck into the show pool.

That's it for today. Good luck at the windows.