A look at what went wrong (and right) on Saturday and two picks for Parx today
We're back at it for a slow Tuesday, and even thought the slate is slim, don't worry: we can always find a race on which to bet a few shekels.
But before we get to tomorrow's races, let's take a look at what happened this past weekend. We're hoping that we have serious handicappers, or at least nascent serious handicappers, with us, because we're going to dive into two races that we analyzed in Saturday’s "Garrity's Graded Stakes." We ain't got no graded stakes tomorrow, but that won't stop us from looking back and seeing if we can learn from last weekend. I don't know a serious handicapper who doesn't review the crime scene, as it were, so come along with me.
We'll start with the Sham from Santa Anita: Even your Aunt Peg knew that Coliseum would be an odds-on favorite, and even your slow Aunt Mary (sorry; I'm Catholic) knew that he'd need to deal with/dominate/overcome a legitimate early pace in order to win the race.
Coliseum couldn't: He broke terribly; jockey Joe Talamo rushed him up into contention on the backstretch -- into very fast middle-race fractions -- and Coliseum faded in the stretch. He finished second to last, and in the process disappointed bettors, both those who'd pounded him to 3-5 in the Sham, and those who -- ahem -- touted him as a pick in the Derby future bet.
Now everyone is off the Coliseum train, but I say stop! Bob Baffert said he came back sound, he will likely be pointed to the San Felipe, or the next round of Derby preps, and I think his Sham is better than it looks. I think we need to look to bet Coliseum next time out -- and we might get 2-1, instead of 2/5. So stick with me, comrades. You can watch a replay of the race here:
I'll contrast the Sham with another race I picked this past weekend, one I picked "right." It was another race for 3-year-olds, though this one was for those whose trainers deemed them not ready for prime time. Although my top pick, Mihos, won the race, it's one we can toss enthusiastically. Mihos ran hard, and the money cashes at the window just as well, but I wouldn't bet him next time with Boop's money. Unlike generals, who are always fighting the next war, we handicappers have always to be looking to the next race. What a horse did last time might be instructive, but it doesn't get us paid.
As for today, there's not much to excite us, but we've found a couple of plays. Both of them are at Parx, and they are as follows:
9- Loan Me Your Ear. This is a first-time starter from a barn that fires first-time out. 5-1.
3-Disruptor. He's going to go right to the front, or near it, and stay there all the way.
Bet them both, and in the double, and we'll see you here tomorrow.