The PGA Tour wraps up its traditional fall swing at the RSM Classic. As in previous years, players faced a unique two-course challenge at Sea Island Golf Club. For bettors, DFS players, and golf fans, this week is all about understanding which course data to trust and perhaps taking a look at the weather conditions to forecast any heavy wind shifts.
With only one round on the Plantation Course and three rounds on the Seaside Course, this event will reward the players who control their ball in the wind, excel at attacking the greens while avoiding big misses, and can put the ball in the hole with minimal attempts.
We have seen the wind take over the last two years, keeping the final score under -20. The two years before that we scored in the -20’s, the wind will determine a lot this weekend.
The RSM Classic uses two courses for the opening two rounds: the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course. Everyone gets one round each Thursday and Friday before the field returns to Seaside for the weekend.
Another benefit for bettors is that the PGA Tour uses ShotLink data on the Seaside Course, which will help us dial in on our data analysis.
Seaside is a links-style layout that plays to par 70 at 7,005 yards. Players must be accurate off the tee as this course ranks 3rd on tour with over 10% of missed fairway shots resulting in a stroke penalty.
Thirteen holes bring water into play, bunkers are positioned to punish aggressive lines, and unpredictable winds can make the best wedge and iron players scratch their heads.
To succeed here, the players must stay accurate off the tee, land safely on the greens, and if they miss a green, get up and down.
1. Par-5 Scoring
Seaside only has two par 5s, so players must take advantage of their rare scoring chances. Those who average under par on these holes, or those who can find eagles, will have a chance to find separation on the scoreboard.
2. Putting from 3–5 Feet
Large greens mean plenty of mid-range to long first putts. Especially with the wind, players may miss their targets, forcing them to putt from a wide range of distances this week. Converting the short ones is key to scoring low this week!
3. Three-Putt Avoidance
With undulating surfaces and constant coastal winds, long putts can get tricky. Players who excel around the green and can avoid unnecessary three-putts can keep their momentum going. A bogey can quickly dampen the mood and energy here.
4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Greens will be missed, especially if the wind decides to play a part this week, which is likely at some point. The best scramblers around the green could find an advantage at Seaside. Strokes Gained Around the Green ranks 13th on tour here, which shows how important a solid short game is.
Valimaki is a strong fit this week thanks to his strong approach game, his solid putting, and his accuracy off the tee. Over his last 3 months of play, he ranks #1 in this field on approach, #22 in accuracy off the tee, and #19 in putting.
Over his last 20 rounds, 6 starts, he has three top-25 finishes, ranks #2 on approach, #17 in putting, #20 in accuracy off the tee, and #20 in total true strokes gained.
Sami is also coming in off back-to-back top-20’s finishing T18 last week and 2nd at World Wide Technology Championship. Sami has four top-20s and three top-10s in his last 7 events!
Bonus Bet: Beau Hossler Top 40 (+163, BetRivers)
**See DFS Notes on Beau and his trend coming off a Missed Cut**
Thorbjornsen is one of the highest upside players in the field and one of the highest ranked over their last 20 rounds. He ranks #6 in true total strokes gained in this field this week, ranking #5 off the tee and #14 on approach.
Yes, he can struggle with the putter and around the greens, but we knew that last season, and he finished T8. Michael has been one of the most consistent in this field with recent finishes of T31, T37, 3, T29, T38, CUT, T14, T21, T4, that is eight top-40s in his last nine events.
Harman feels tailor-made for any short course, and Seaside is no different. In this field over their last 20 rounds, Harman ranks #2 in true total strokes gained, #10 tee-to-green, #7 on approach, and #30 in accuracy off the tee.
He’s accurate off the tee, smart with his approach decisions, and one of the best short-course players in this field. He rarely gives away strokes on short putts, which could be a major factor for him this week.
He recently played on the DP Tour in India, finishing T26. Prior to that, his finish to the Tour Championship was nothing short of spectacular (8, T50, T10, T22, T19, T13).
Whaley is quietly one of the most intriguing mid-range plays. Over his last 20 rounds, he ranks #1 in putting, #5 in around the green, and #11 in true strokes gained.
Vince is also smoking hot, coming into this event on an impressive 18 straight made cuts. His T3 last week has capped off an impressive run of three straight top-40s of T3, T17, and T37. Oh, and his last two trips here resulted in a T8 and a T13.
Cole is one of the safest mid-tier options based on course history. While perhaps not the strongest in any one area in this field, his last three trips here resulted in a T15, T3, and T39, all top 40 finishes.
Over his last 20 rounds, he ranks #20 in putting, #17 on approach, and his biggest struggle area is off the tee. If he can stay accurate off the tee, he will have another shot at a top-40.
Hossler is a classic Sea Island fit thanks to his elite scrambling and ability to get hot with the putter. Rated as possibly one of the best players on tour around the green, he can make up for poor driving and approach data with his scoring ability.
His last trip here saw success with a T21, but that was over two seasons ago. Over his last 20 rounds, he ranks #15 around the green, #34 putting, and I almost always love Beau in a bounce-back spot.
He missed the cut last week, but prior to that, he finished 17th. In seven missed cuts this season, he made the cut in all seven starts following that missed cut, finishing inside the top 40 in five of those seven starts.
Finding a player under the $6500 threshold can definitely be tricky, but boy has Byrd been filling it up! Byrd is coming into this tournament off three straight top-25s, T14, T19, and T23.
He has played nine PGA events this season, making the cut in six, and with the ShotLink data we do have on him, over his last 20 rounds, he ranks #6 around the green and #18 in putting.
He has shown himself to be accurate off the tee, and he has a good chance to reward us here!