Welcome back, PGA fans! One more week brings us closer to the end of the 2025 PGA Tour season, and there is a lot on the line this week. With 50 players in the field, we have another no-cut event; players will get all four days to make a move up the leaderboard.
Positioning matters at the end of the season, not only for a Ryder Cup team nudge, but also the higher you place, the more money you make. With the tour playing this course one time before, there are a lot of unknowns coming into this week! I have mainly targeted players this week in strong form, who can score well with the putter! With no cut and no Top 40 options (our bread and butter), we will be attacking some Top 20 options this week.
Caves Valley Golf Club is set to host the BMW Championship for just the second time in PGA Tour history, the first being in 2021. They have not played here on tour before or since that event. This par-70 course stretches over 7,600 yards and will offer plenty of scoring opportunities, as we saw in 2021!
The fairways are generous enough to encourage aggressive driving, and the three-inch fescue rough is far more playable than the thick rough we see at other venues. Players can miss the fairway and still reach the green in regulation, which should tilt the advantage toward long hitters and confident iron players.
Water hazards are in play on a handful of holes, but they’re not positioned to punish the field heavily. The greens are receptive and should reward precise approach shots while giving elite putters a chance to get hot. The 2021 edition showed just how scoreable this course can be, with Patrick Cantlay posting 27-under and the top six players all finishing at least 20-under.
● Strokes Gained: Approach – Sharp iron players who can hit greens in regulation, hit the greens with proximity, and find the greens from the rough, will give themselves a major advantage over players struggling to find scoring opportunities.
● Strokes Gaines: Putting – I expect this to be a track race like it was in 2021; whoever can score more will win. Some courses stay around -10 for a winner, which means a lot of par saves, but players will need to putt well and take advantage on the greens.
● Driving Distance – Longer hitters can take advantage of the forgiving rough and set up easier scoring opportunities. As we saw in 2021, the majority of the Top 20 and Top 10 were long drivers of the ball, who could also put the ball in the hole. On a 7,500+ course, distance will play a key role.
● Birdie Average and Birdie or Better Percentage – A player’s ability to go on scoring runs is crucial in a potential shootout. Players who score birdies on average more than others should find themselves in the Top 20 this week. Even if they are not long drivers of the ball, a lot can be made up on the putting surface, and all my picks this week are Top 20 gaining strokes with the putter over the last 20 rounds!
Griffin has been one of the best players on tour all season and has a chance to close out 2025 in fashion. Coming off a T9 and T11, along with finishing inside the Top 20 in eight of his last ten events, shows he is still in peak form. He has nine Top-10 finishes this season, and ranks 11th in strokes gained total, 32nd in approach to the green, and 23rd in strokes gained putting this season.
Over his last 30 days, which is 3-4 events for most of these guys, he ranks 3rd in true strokes gained putting, 17th in around the green, 23rd on approach, and 14th in total strokes. He quietly put together one of the more well-rounded tee-to-green profiles this season. Griffin has shown he can handle soft, scorable conditions, and his controlled driving will allow him to attack flags even if he finds the rough. In a birdie-heavy setup, his putting touch makes him a safe Top 20 target.
Fitzpatrick got a lot of us last week, but I think that positions him to have a nice bounce-back week here. He has been locked in over the last few months, and looking at his last 30 days, over 16 rounds, he ranks 4th in strokes gained putting, 1st in around the green, 17th tee-to-green, and 5th total strokes gained.
Outside of his T32 last week, he finished inside the Top 10 in four straight events, Top 20 in five straight. Fitzpatrick's overall stats do not jump off the paper, as he has turned things on over the last three months, looking like one of the best players on tour. Over those last three months, he ranked Top 5 in true strokes gained putting, around the green, and total, while ranking 23rd in distance and 22nd in accuracy off the tee. If he puts it all together this week, he could win another event!
Hall brings a different profile to the table; he is not a long hitter, but he has been the best putter on tour practically all season, definitely the last 3 months. He ranks number 1 for the season in numerous putting categories, and while he isn’t the longest or the best on approach, he can find the bottom of the hole from anywhere on the putting surface. We need players who can go low, and while he doesn’t present the ball striking attributes I relish, he has been the most consistent golfer I have wagered on over the last two seasons!
While Hall, Fitzpatrick, and Griffin do not hit the ball as long or as accurately off the tee as their competitors, all three have been elite putters over the last few months, and that's the top attribute for me this week. For the season, Hall ranks 8th in strokes gained total, 1st in strokes gained putting, putting average, putts per round, and birdie average. He has a great chance to find another Top 20 if he can compete from the tee box to the putting surface, as he will have one of the best advantages once they reach the greens!
English has been quietly consistent in recent months, gaining strokes across all parts of his bag. both off the tee and on approach. English finished T26 in 2021, and while he was enjoying a very good year in 2021, he is doing the same in 2025. Posting eleven Top 30s, eight Top 20s, and finishing inside the Top 20 in five of his last nine events makes him a strong play here.
His driving accuracy combined with solid distance makes him dangerous on a course like this, where attacking pins are rewarded. Over the last 30 days, over 12 rounds, English ranks 12th in strokes gained putting, 19th around the green, 16th on approach, 19th tee-to-green, 15th total, 23rd in distance off the tee, and 8th in accuracy off the tee. He has the complete package going right now, along with some steady veteran experience in his back pocket; he can find another strong finish here!
I usually never play these lines in golf, but the way he has been playing, I believe he is a lock this week to find a top position. Aberg’s combination of elite driving and pinpoint approach play makes him arguably the most dangerous ball striker in the field for this type of setup. He's been rocketing up the rankings lately as well!
Over his last 30 days, 12 rounds, he ranks inside the Top 15 in seven of the eight categories for strokes gained! 3rd in distance and 9th in accuracy off the tee, 9th in strokes gained total, 7th in tee-to-green, 6th off the tee, 13th on approach and 15th putting.
He has four Top 20 finishes in his last seven events, finishing inside the Top 10 in two of his last three. He finished T2 at the BMW last season, finishing his 2024 season strong with finishes of T2, 16, T17, and 6. I expect him to keep it rolling just like this time last year! In a likely shootout, Aberg’s ability to string together multiple birdies in a row is exactly the profile we want to see for a Top 20 lock.