Welcome back, PGA fans! After another major, the PGA Tour returns to the States to begin the final season run. The 3M Open returns this week as players descend upon TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. With plenty of tree-lined fairways and water hazards, this course rewards precision off the tee, accuracy into the greens, and finesse around the greens.
The field features a strong mix of proven veterans and rising contenders aiming to make their final push towards the Tour Championship and the Ryder Cup. Read on for key storylines, statistical insights, and our best bets for the week ahead.
TPC Twin Cities plays to par‑71 at 7,431 yards, totaling three par‑5s and four par‑3s. The course has water present on 15 of the 18 holes, and the water will collect some balls this week!
What stands out this week is being accurate off the tee is critical here as missing the fairways has the 7th highest penalty on tour. A good total driver of the ball and one that can find fairways will set themselves up for success.
Players setting themselves up off the tee have a good chance to find these putting surfaces as they rank 7th highest on tour for greens in regulation rate. These greens are not hard to hit and players who excel with iron and wedge play will certainly be in contention.
Strokes gained putting difficulty ranked as second easiest on tour, players who are rolling it well have an opportunity to set themselves apart from the field. We should see some excellent displays put on this weekend!
Key Stats That Correlate to Success
● Stokes Gained: Tee‑to‑green (ranked 13th on Tour) – Success here means finding the fairway to give the best opportunity to score from the second shot on, as these greens allow for scoring.
● Driving accuracy (ranked 17th) – Accuracy is more important than distance, but distance can never be undervalued at most venues. The landing zones are wide enough for the players, but there are enough penalties and hazards to keep the players in check. Players who are spraying left to right could be in trouble.
● Around‑the‑green (18th) – As most players will be finding the greens in regulation, we have critical par-5s on this course that demand players' scores. Usually, par-5s require a short game around the green, and that is where the players will need to stand out.
● Putting – 7 of the top 11 Secondary Stats correlating to success involve putting statistics like total birdies, total putting, and putting from 4-8’ and inside 10’. Good putters, particularly on bent grass, could have a major advantage this week!
Sam Burns has been locked in for the better part of two months, and he brings elite tee-to-green skills. His biggest weapon is his putter, as he has been one of the best putters on tour this season and is the odds-on favorite to win this event.
He has seven top 20s this season and should find another Top 20 this week! Burns has picked up strokes off the tee in seven straight, putting in five straight, and tee-to-green in five straight.
His short-game touch off fast greens and sharp putting stroke gives him a real advantage here. He has been one of the best players at putting the ball in the hole, scoring matters the most in golf, and he's top 40 in almost every scoring category.
McNealy quietly packs a stats sheet that matches this course’s demands. He has six Top 10s this season. While his around the green and putting statistics desire some improvements, he ranks inside the top 40 in strokes gained: total, off the tee, and putting.
His overall game, even when one part of his bag is not clicking, is good enough to position him amongst the top in these weaker fields. His steady scoring ability and calm temperament on tricky greens make him a sleeper to contend. Don’t be surprised if he finds himself another Top 10 this week. I just think he is a safer play for Top 40, which is unplayable odds unless you parlay him.
The Kansas City-born shot maker has gained attention this season with a heat check in major fields and is coming off back-to-back impressive showings on links courses. With his return to American Soil, I do expect him to take a step back, especially on these green complexes.
He has a chance this week to keep his run going, and if he does, he could change the course of his career and future if he keeps it rolling like he has. He ranks 9th in strokes gained off the tee and top 40 in total strokes gained. I think he gets tripped up this week but keep an eye on him!
Coming off back-to-back Missed Cuts, I am all in on Max to turn things around. The last time this season, where he missed back-to-back weeks, he followed it up with back-to-back Top 40 finishes. After those missed cuts back in March, he went on a run of landing inside the Top 40 in nine of his next ten events.
In a weaker field with most of the star players missing, I do believe he is one of the top 20 players. In his lone start here last season, he finished runner-up(2nd), and I think he is poised to make another late-season run. From the 3M Open last season, he finished Top 40 in his last 6 events, top 5 in four of those six ending last year as one of the hottest players on tour!
Pendrith is one of the PGA Tour’s best ball-strikers and ranks inside the top 30 for strokes gained total. His all-around game has been solid, and I love backing a player of his caliber following a missed cut.
Before his missed cut at the Open, which you can’t fault too much, he has six straight top 40’s, five of which were inside the top 30!
He ranks 7th in strokes gained off the tee, 53rd in approach, 24th in GIR% and 23rd in Par 5 scoring. He is no stranger to success here coming off a top 5 finish here last year, he sets up to contend again in another weaker field!
Akshay Bhatia Top 40 (–125)
Akshay Bhatia continues to be a solid and consistent PGA Tour player and is coming off back-to-back top 30s. He now gets a weaker field and is one of the best ball strikers in this field. He has finished inside the top 40 in 10 tournaments this season, and I expect him to make it 11 after this week!
He ranks 16th in strokes gained approach, 21st in strokes gained putting, 41st in strokes gained total, 21st in proximity, and 11th in birdie average.
His driving accuracy is almost 70% ranking 49th, and if he can navigate trouble, he could land his 4th top 10 this week! He finished T64 here last season, and I strongly believe he can improve on that this time around!
Jake Knapp Top 40 (–145)
Jake Knapp is quietly building momentum on Tour, and his current form suits TPC Twin Cities very well. He started last year carding a 71 and a 68 before a bad 3rd round and a withdrawal, so we don’t have the full scope of what he can do on this course over four rounds. I do not expect him to be cut, so he has a chance to make some serious noise this week.
Over the last few tournaments, he’s recorded solid strokes gained across tee-to-green, ranking especially well in iron play and green-in-regulation rate, key metrics for success this week. He has finished inside the top 27 in four straight events, finishing T27, T4, T21, and T22. He has been one of the best scramblers and putters this season. If he can drive it well, he can keep his top 30 streak going.
Fowler’s recent form has rebounded with two straight made cuts, while only missing two cuts all season shows he has been in more consistent form. Add on top of that, he has back-to-back top 20 finishes. Outside of those two missed cuts, one at the PGA Championship, he has six straight top 40s, five of which were inside the top 20.
It’s even more impressive when you look at his overall rankings, where he does not rank inside the top 50 in many major categories. His highest ranking is 29th in total driving, while also ranking 43rd in birdie average, 55th in putting average, and 53rd in scrambling.
A player we have not played much, but one who deserves some attention. Grillo has been very consistent and now gets a bounce-back spot after a missed cut at the Barracuda last week.
Prior to that, he reeled off six of seven events where he placed inside the top 40, finishing 2nd at the John Deere at the beginning of July. His record here has also been very solid with finishes of T24, T10, and T2, he has a good chance to make it four straight years inside the top 30.
He ranks 17th in driving accuracy, 16th total driving, 34th in proximity, 44th in putting average, 47th in strokes gained putting, 45th strokes gained approach and 34th par 4 scoring. With this weaker field those rankings move much higher, at +105, he’s too underpriced to ignore.