Golf's final major tournament of 2025 is about to get underway, as some of the finest players in the world will tackle Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland for The Open Championship. Xander Schauffele will be trying to defend his title after taking home the Claret Jug at Royal Troon last year.
As you might expect, Scottie Scheffler is currently the betting favorite to win. The No. 1 player in the world is currently +450 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. Local fan favorite Rory McIlroy has the 2nd-shortest odds (+750). Bringing up the third spot is Jon Rahm, who is currently sitting at +1200.
Let's do a deep dive into which metrics are important at Royal Portrush before giving out our two best bets (both are on full tournament head-to-head matchups) for the 2025 Open Championship. Best of luck and enjoy a great four days of solid golf coverage.
Links golf is completely different animal to handicap. Sure, strokes gained on approach is still the most important metric to look at, but there are a few stats on links courses that don't even make my radar for American courses.
With links courses, golfers will have to hit all sorts of different shots from tight lies. This means that strokes gained around the green are almost as crucial as strokes gained on approach. Links courses also have deeper roughs, so driving accuracy is far more than important than sheer distance off the tee.
My last two stats of importance for Royal Portrush are kind of linked (pun-intended): Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. These two metrics go hand in hand, but I like to look at both for The Open, just because the windy conditions tend to limit birdie opportunities.
Pendrith has been in great current form, but I'm going to fade him here with a wily old veteran like Jason Day. Pendrith has had his moments of brilliance this season, but he's never played at Royal Portrush or in an Open Championship, for that matter. Day didn't play all that well here in 2019, but at least he has some familiarity with the course.
Day also has a distinct advantage in four major stats that I value at Royal Portrush. He ranks 20th in strokes gained around the green, while Pendrith ranks just 111th. Day also ranks 37th in scrambling and 30th in bogey avoidance. Pendrith ranks just 148th and 106th in those categories, respectively.
Lastly, I trust Jason Day and his experience way more on these greens than I do Taylor Pendrith. Day ranks 64th in strokes gained putting, while Pedrith ranks just 107th. Give me Day to beat out Pendrith once the tournament ends on Sunday.
I hate to fade a smiling young guy like Hovland, but I trust JT to put together a nice outing this weekend at The Open. Like the aforementioned Pendrith, Hovland has never played Royal Portrush. Thomas played here in 2019 and finished a respectable T-11th.
Though Hovland has a slight edge over Thomas with his iron play, JT should have a huge edge with his short game. The former Alabama star ranks 35th in strokes gained around the green and 14th in strokes gained putting. Hovland rates out at just 140th and 131st in those categories, respectively.
My only concern with this play has been JT's lack of accuracy off the tee. Hopefully, Rev Minister will encourage Thomas to start using his 3-wood more on holes with tight fairways. Even if that doesn't happen, I still like this plus money price with the more experienced golfer. Roll Tide!