The second major of the season tees off this week at Quail Hollow Club, and players are in for one of the toughest tests they’ll face all year. The PGA Championship always demands a well-rounded game, but this time around, we are facing one of the longest courses that will punish bad shots. This may be one of the best events we witness all year!
The PGA Tour has played at Quail Hollow every year, dating back to 2003, except for 2020. We have a ton of data on this course and a good amount of player history to dig through. This course will demand excellence from tee to green, and the short hitters will have to find crafty ways to score and keep up with the long bombers who can keep it in the fairway and find greens in regulation.
Quail Hollow is a monster, no other way to put it, and it is one of my favorite courses on tour. Measuring over 7,500 yards and playing to a par of 71, it consistently ranks among the toughest courses on the PGA Tour, with the majority of holes averaging over par.
This course favors power off the tee, and finding fairways is a must, to get a clean 2nd look. Players need to be able to hit it high and land shots softly on firm greens. It’s no surprise that Quail Hollow ranks among the lowest in greens in regulation percentage, so scrambling and bogey avoidance will be critical to a high finishing position.
The “Green Mile” (holes 16–18) remains one of the most difficult closing stretches on tour. If we are close down the stretch, these 3 holes could determine the outcome! Statistically, Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green are the two most important indicators of success here.
The hottest player on tour meets his favorite course this week! Since 2014, for all players in this field, with at least 24 rounds on the course, Rory ranks #1 in strokes gained per round (+2.86). This qualifies as the best player/course combo of any on Tour in the last 10 years! With his current form, he should be the clear favorite on all sportsbooks.
Justin Thomas is right there behind Rory. Since the Sentry, JT has been arguably the hottest player on Tour outside of Rory. He’s racked up six top-10 finishes in his last eight starts, including a win and a T2 in his last two events. He has 3 Top 2 finishes in his last 4 events alone! To add more to his recent success, he won the 2017 PGA Championship here and has finished T26 or better in four straight Quail Hollow appearances since.
Bryson DeChambeau is a major threat at every venue and this one may suit him better than most! He’s finished 1st, T2, T5, and 5th in his last four LIV starts and owns an impressive recent major run of T5, CUT, 1st, 2nd, and T6. Bryson has had recent success here with finishes of T9 and 4th, coming after his 33rd-place finish here at the 2017 PGA Championship, and he is a much better player now. With his power, and success heere, Bryson should find the Top-10!
Xander Schauffele has quietly put together four straight top-18 finishes, including three top-15s, and his all-around consistency makes him a safe bet for any major championship. Xander has back to back 2nd place finishes here, with a T14 to add back in 2021. Xander captured two major championships last season, and he is as hungry as anyone to get back in the winner circle. Xander is positioned to win another trophy and should find Top-20, if not Top-10!
Hideki Matsuyama should be on everyone's radar with his success here in the past and he can hit it long and scramble with the best on tour! He finished T5 at the 2017 PGA here and if his game is locked in, he has the perfect skill set for Quail Hollow with his elite driving and short game. Hideki quietly has 7 Top-30 finishes this season and has finishes of T5, T11 and T20 here!
For the Top 40 markets, I absolutely love Jason Day, Corey Conners, and Patrick Reed. All three have a very strong course history, and all 3 have had very strong finishes this year and should contend to be inside the Top-50 this weekend!