The PGA Tour returns to normal format this week after a week in New Orleans. With a limited field of stars, the CJ Cup at TPC Craig Ranch could be any player's event to win! Nestled in McKinney Texas, a course known for its wide fairways and birdie-friendly setup we are certain to see low scores once again!
With the world’s #1 fighting to get back in the winner circle, he has a pack of young and hungry players looking to take his shine. With soft landing zones and a layout that rewards precise approach play, I have targeted the statistics that matter the most when correlating success here.
Usually, a player does well in these categories he will always have success at any event, but this even particularly correlates very well to success. Strokes Gained: Approach ranks as the #2 most correlated stat to success on Tour for this event.
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Strokes Gained: Total also rate highly at #7 and #4, respectively, displaying the importance of ball striking. While Birdie Scoring ranks #1, players who can land on the greens with good proximity and go low consistently are primed to contend.
In this field, Scheffler ranks #2 in Strokes Gained: Approach and #1 in both Tee to Green and Total Strokes Gained. To go along with those stats, which make him, on paper, an almost perfect fit for TPC Craig Ranch, he has improved every year here.
With finishes of T47, T15, and T5 last year, he is now knocking at the door for a W. It has been since December 8th at the Hero World Challenge that Scottie won his last event. He is due in 2025, and no better time than now!
Spieth thrives in Texas, and I have been kicking myself for not taking him Top 20 at The Masters. Spieth has been locked in, and even at this price for him, which I don’t love, he is by far one of the top players in this field.
He has strung together a nice run of late, with 3 straight Top 20 finishes. Since the Waste Management Open he has 5 Top 20’s. He was Cut here last year, giving him a little more motivation as well.
Outside of that Cut he finished 2nd and T9 his other two times here. Spieth has gained strokes total, tee to green, and putting in 4 straight events.
Knapp's aggressive style is well-suited for TPC Craig Ranch's expensive fairways and found success here last season finishing 8th. Wouldn’t normally pay this price and I do like his Top 30 +105, this seems as close to a lock I can find.
In his last 11 events he has 8 Top 40s and only 1 Missed Cut. He ranks 12th in Birdie Average, 56th Total, 62nd Approach and 21st Putting. Knapp has a very well-rounded game and has a very good chance to finish inside the Top 20 this week.
Gerard is a name people may not know very well, but once you start checking the final positions, he is always there week in and week out. Since rejoining the PGA Tour in November, he has 9 Top 40s in 13 events with 1 Missed Cut.
He is coming into this event with 4 straight Top 40 finishes, gaining strokes Tee to Green and Total in all 4 events. With 7 Top 40 finishes in his last 10 events, he is playing better than he was last time he came to this course, and he has a chance to keep it rolling.
Hisatsune, another name some may not recognize, has quietly put together a solid run with strong iron play and minimal mistakes. He finished T13 here last season, looking to find his 4th Top 10 finish this season!
Ryo has been locked in basically since his Top 10 finish in Mexico. Since then he has 4 Top 20 finishes in 7 events. He ranks 30th Total Strokes Gained, 15th in Scoring Average, 50th in Proximity and 56th in Approach, he could make it 4 straight Top 20s this week.