The Waste Management Phoenix Open isn’t just another PGA Tour event, it’s one of the best spectacles on Tour. Known as “The Peoples Open,” this tournament at TPC Scottsdale brings together elite golfers, electric crowds, and a party-like atmosphere unlike anything else in the sport.
Most casual fans know about the 16th hole, and how it steals the spotlight with its stadium-like features. This course is anything but easy. It presents a real challenge, testing players with risk-reward opportunities and strategic shot-making. Players must have solid driving accuracy, while being exceptional at their approaches into the green, leaving themselves the best possible chance to make birdies.
TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261-yards. It is a desert-style course with early holes that allow players to settle in, while the back nine brings the excitement and late round drama! Last year, the winning score was -19, proving that birdies are out there, but precision is what matters here.
Avoiding hazards off the tee, being a solid striker of the ball, and being able to get your ball as close proximity to these holes really matters. There are water hazards on six holes and deep bunkers that can be challenging, making Sunday’s final stretch one of the most exciting finishes on the tour schedule.
Nick Taylor has a 1st place and a 2nd place finish his last 2 years here, a place he had not played well at in years prior. How did he do it you ask? With a HOT putter, gaining a scorching 9 and 8 strokes both years, compared to all negative strokes gained years prior at this event. He was also exceptional with every other part of his bag these last 2 years.
How has he been fairing in 2025? He is coming off a T33 last week, T12, 1, T48 to round out 2025. In 4 events, he has 3 Top 40 finishes and has gained multiple strokes on approach in 4 straight and 8/L9 events. He has gained 3.3, 4.2, and 6 strokes on approach his last 3 events, while in 2 of those he gained 9.4 and 11 total strokes.
Mr. Kitayama returns to a place with only finishes of T8 last season and T23 the year prior. Dating back to the ZOZO Championship in October of 2023, Kurt quietly and consistently has hit 20 Top 40 positions in 27 events, landing on 41 once, 58 the other time and the other 5 were missed cuts. Making the cut in 22/L25 events, including majors, and having 2 solid finishes here, giving him a good chance to find it again.
Kurt has gained strokes off the tee in 12 straight events, gained strokes tee-to-green in 9/L 10 events, hitting 7+ strokes in 5 of those 9, and his approach and around the green stats have been spot on. He is coming off a Cut in his last event, but with 1 week rest he has shown in his career he bounces back after missed-cuts.
Usually I tend to lean on guys with great current form + good course history + good trending stats for what that particular course desires for success. Here I am taking a chance on Austin Eckroat, who has never played well here. A cut last year and a 64 in 2022. He was basically negative across his bag in both of those events, though in last year's event he did gain strokes around the green and a tad off the tee.
His current form has him finishing inside the Top 20 in 4 of his last 6 events on tour. In the events he has done well in he has gained strokes off the tee, on approach, with the putter, and total strokes. With the way he is playing, the odds we are getting, and a chance to finally position well here, following a T13 last week, I am willing to take a chance on Austin this week!
Nick Taylor Top 40 (-125)
Kurt Kitayama Top 40 (-125)
Austin Eckroat Top 40 (-105)
Min Woo Lee Top 40 (-120)
Tom Hoge Top 40 (-105)