PGA Fans welcome to the first article of 2025! We have a fantastic 60 player field in this week's The Sentry, at the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. Buckle up as this is a no-cut field, and we will get 4 full rounds from every player!
Of course I would love to back Xander, Colin, and Sam Burns this week, but with a condensed field we get higher priced odds on our top players, thus we have to find the 2nd tier guys we believe will put together a strong week and I believe I have identified a couple winners for everyone!
The PGA Tour returns to beautiful Hawaii this week and it should be a good one! The course is a par 73, 7,596 yards with Bermuda grass throughout. The course has a ton of undulations and bunkers contoured in the layout, and players have to be strategic off the tee.
One of the more talked about concepts at this course is this is a 2nd shot course. What that means is a majority of the players will be playing from the same spots. Most off the tee will collect in the same area, meaning whoever plays their 2nd shots better, and particularly their shots into the greens, will find success.
A couple of key stats that correlate to success on this course are approach shots from 50-75 yards, as well as 150 to 225. Players that can excel at these ranges, and keep it closer to the pin, will score higher. We tend to get a ton of scoring in this event, so finding a player that can consistently go low and find birdies, is key!
Byeong-Hun An finished in 4th place last season at this event and is coming off a hot finish to last season finishing top 33 in his last 5 events, T13, T24, T33, T13, T21. His last two Januarys (2024 & 2023), saw him finish top 20 in 3 of those 5 events showing he usually starts his new year with strong play.
An has a positive 3.0 strokes gained at this course, and other than Viktor Hovland, that is one of the highest in this field. He also ranks 10th overall in combined strokes gained from 50-75 yards and from 150-225 yards, ranking top 17 in 3 of those 4 categories. He ranked 22nd strokes gained off tee and 32nd in birdie average. He has another good chance for a strong finish.
Over the last 36 rounds, Greyserman has been the #1 player in adjusted course fit, absolutely scorching from off the tee and with the putter. He is also the #1 ranked player over the last 36 rounds in strokes gained on the players in this field, and has been by far the best putter in this field over that time frame.
Not only has his statistics been great, but he is also coming into this tournament as one of the hottest players on tour with some of the best combined finishes in this field. In his last 8 events, he finished top 20 in 6 of those 8, top 10 in 5 of those 8. He ranked 20th total strokes gained, 4th in scoring average, and 7th in birdie average.
J.T. Poston has 3 straight solid finishes (T5, T21, T11) and has gained strokes off the tee in the last 2 tournaments here. He is also coming into this tournament with 3 top 10 finishes last season with T9, T5, and 1, and last January he ripped off 3 straight. top 11 finishes.
Poston doesn’t rank very high in many categories, he sits 34th in putting average, 51st in strokes gained, and 42nd in birdie average, but when you condense the field down to these 60 players, rather than over 100+, he ranks far higher than those numbers.
He can be an efficient driver, putting himself at good angles to attack the greens leaving himself with higher scoring opportunities. He has a fantastic feel for this course and has a tendency to play well in January.
My Best Bets (3):
Byeong-Hun An Top 20 (-120)
Max Greyserman Top 20 (-110)
JT Poston Top 20 (+105)
Bonus Bets:
Si Woo Kim Top 20 (+120)
Cameron Young Top 20 (+105)