PGA: After picking Morikawa at the Open, Kern picks the 3M Open, likes Finau, Tringale, Garcia, longshots
Last week we avoided the faves in the last major of the season and among our mid tier picks gave you both Collin Morikawa at 33-1 and Louis Oosthuizen at 25-1. We almost got the exacta, but Louis paid off for his top five. So it was a really good week. Have to enjoy them when you get them, cause it can always go the other way in a hurry. So by all means let’s try to keep it going.
At the third playing of the 3M Open in Minnesota, Dustin Johnson is the fave, at 7.5-1. He’s the No. 2 player in the world rankings, and did get a top 10 at the British. But he’s finished 25th or worse in seven of his last 11 starts. Oosthuizen is next, at 11-1, followed by Tony Finau at 14-1. Finau, who never wins, was third here last year.
Patrick Reed is also 14-1. He’s been 25th or worse in his last three starts. Cameron Tringale is 25-1. He tied for third here last year. Sergio Garcia is 28-1. He’s had three straight top 20s, and is on a course that favors good ball striking. He’s among the best. Emiliano Grillo is 28-1 as well. Matthew Wolff, who withdrew from the British with no reason given, is 30-1. He won this in 2019 and was 12th last year, but his recent personal issues have been well documented.
Keegan Bradley is 33-1. He played well two weeks ago at the John Deere. Robert MacIntyre is 35-1, as is Bubba Watson, who had to miss the British due to Covid contact protocols. He missed the cut here last year but was sixth in Detroit in his last start. Cameron Davis is 40-1. Rickie Fowler is 50-1. Ditto Jhonattan Vegas. Stewart Cink, who’s had a resurgence this season, is 55-1. Dylan Fritelli, who played well in England, and Luke List are 60-1. List had a fourth and a fifth in his last two starts. Ryan Moore, who had a runner up two weeks ago (when we had him) is 66-1. Ditto Brandt Snedeker.
J.T. Poston, who could have won the Barbasol satellite event last week, is 80-1. And there are others. You just have to look harder. One name that’s interesting is Brandon Hagy, at 125-1. He missed a playoff by two shots two starts ago, and held the lead early in the final round of the John Deere two weeks ago before finishing 18th. Just duly noting.
To be honest I don’t have much of any strong feelings this week. Maybe it’s the post-major whatever. But there’s still always money to be made, so we’ll look for some good values and hope for the best, as usual.
You know I’m avoiding the faves, just because, though I dare say this could finally be the week that Tony Finau lifts a trophy. I mean, it’s about time. And at 14-1 he might be worth a shot, if you’re so inclined. I think I might look more at Cameron Tringale, at 25, and even Sergio Garcia, at 28-1. But nothing too much. Just enough to give you a little something to root for. I would also throw some on Bubba Watson, at 35-1. And all three of those guys would also get you at least 5-1 for a top five, which might actually be the best way to proceed.
If you’re looking for a longshot or two I would suggest that Brandon Hagy chap we just mentioned. Even if it’s just a few bucks. That’s a big payday, which of course is that way for a reason. And he’s 11-1 for just a top 10, which isn’t a bad consolation prize.
Oops, almost forgot. The defending champ is Michael Thompson, who’s 100-1. But I’ll pass.
If I was going to throw one more name at you I’ll go with Luke List, at 60-1 and 6-1 for a top 10. Again just something small, just in case.
There you have it. It’s hard to win big in back to back weeks, but I like a challenge. Next week it’s on to the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, one of the next best things to a major. And the last event before the playoffs begin. I will tell you in advance that I already have Brooks Koepka in my yearlong pool. And Collin Morikawa the week after that. Timing is everything. Yo. Enjoy the golf.