Bet Golf! Kern picks The Northern Trust in Boston, the first of the three FedEx Cup playoff events
Where and when to watch: Thursday-Friday, 3-7 pm (Golf Channel); Saturday, 1-3 pm (Golf Channel), 3-6 pm (CBS); Sunday, 12:30-2:30 pm (Golf Channel), 2:30-6:30 pm (CBS)
OK, first things first. Last week we gave you several guys that wound up paying off, even though none of them actually lifted the trophy. Doesn’t matter. A cash is a cash.
I told you that if you wanted to do nothing else but bet Webb Simpson to finish in the top five at plus $160 you could maybe do a lot worse. And he did finish in the top five. So if you did that, good for you. Just hope you bet enough to make it worthwhile.
I also gave out Si Woo Kim, at 33-1. And he was leading by two going into the final round. But he only finished third. Good thing I said to put something on him to finish in the top five at 4-1 and top 10 at 7.5-1. So at the very least you probably got some of your money back, if not enough to make a profit.
I also gave out Russell Henley as a long-shot at 50-1. He finished in the top 10. Which is a good thing, since I also had you backing him up with insurance at 9-1. So hopefully you were paying attention.
Hey, some weeks your picks do something, and other weeks they don’t. You just want to have more of the good weeks. So we keep trying.
Now it’s on to the Northern Trust in Boston, the first of the three FedEx Cup playoff events.
Bryson Dechambeau, who recently won a tournament, is the favorite at 10-1. But he hasn’t looked quite as sharp lately. Justin Thomas is 12-1, as he should be. Rory McIlroy, who’s won this thing twice but hasn’t played well since the restart, is 14-1. Ditto Jon Rahm, who also won recently. And he’s my pick in my yearlong pool, which I’m still somehow leading with four events to go. Don’t ask me how. I won’t end up that way.
Jason Day is 16-1, with Xander Schauffele. Day hasn’t won in over two years, but he’s finished between fourth and seventh in his last four starts. Xander has five straight top 20s but no top fives among them.
Dustin Johnson is 20-1. Collin Morikawa, who won the first major of the year a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship, is 22-1. Patrick Reed, who won this thing on a different course last year, is 22-1 as well. He’s coming off a top 10, and has three straight top sixes in this.
Daniel Berger and Patrick Cantlay are both 28-1 with Webb Simpson, who’s playing as well as anyone. Paul Casey and Tony Finau are 33-1. Finau never wins, but he has three top 10s in his last four starts. Brooks Koepka is also 33-1, and he needs to do something to have a shot at getting into the Tour Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott and Tiger Woods are 40-1. Don’t know what to make of Tiger at this point, but as I always say it’s worth putting maybe like five bucks on him just in case he does something Tiger-like, which is always a possibility. Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton are 45-1. Hatton is a good long iron player, which supposedly is important on this layout. Abraham Ancer, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im are 50-1. Im closed 64-66-65 last week. Just saying.
Rickie Fowler, who has won this but seems to be struggling, is 66-1. As are Justin Rose, Matthew Wolff and Gary Woodland.
Among the others, Jordan Spieth is 80-1. Wouldn’t touch that. Shane Lowry and Kevin Na are 90-1, and some seem to think they have a shot to do something. Not sure I agree but I’m just trying to give you as much info as I can to try and make educated whatevers.
Oh, Si Woo Kim is also 90-1. He certainly played well for three days last week. And Byeong Hun An is 100-1. He also needs a good finish to enhance his playoff chances. And I had him last week in my pool, when he didn’t play. I’m a big believer in Karma.
Phil Mickelson is 125-1, in case you want to throw a couple of bucks on him. Heck he’s 25-1 to finish in the top five. And 11-1 to get a top 10. Who knows?
After last week I’m probably due for a stinker, but I have had three winners in the last seven.
You know me, I’m not a favorite kind of guy. I like Jason Day a little, but I’m not sure 16-1 is good enough. But none of the other guys really excite me. So maybe just put a little on him, and definitely something on him to get a top five at plus $450.
As for the next tier, I almost want to take Koepka but I’m not going to. Instead, I’ll try Tyrrell Hatton at 45-1. No good reason. There doesn’t have to be. Stabs are all part of this. Especially some weeks. And he’s 10-1 to get a top five, and half that to get a top five. I’d play both of those too.
I’ll also take Sungjae Im, at 50-1. He’s treated me well in the past. Got me a win once. He’s also 5-1 for a top five and double that for a top 10, so by all means put something on those as well. It worked last week.
And for a real long shot I’m going to come right back with Si Woo Kim. Maybe it’s asking too much, especially coming off that not-so-good Sunday effort at the Wyndham. But 90-1 is a lot. Don’t go crazy. Something small. But also take him at plus $800 for a top five, 16 for a top 10. And I’m going to throw a buck or two on Byeong Hun An, just because of that karma thing I was telling you about. And he is 18-1 for a top five and 9-1 for a top 10. If you know me at all you understand that guys I take one week who don’t play sometimes bite me the next week. You can look it up. So that may be more of a me thing than a you thing. I’m just giving you my due diligence in case you’re into that sort of thing.
So as always, good luck out there. See you next week for the BMW Championship, hopefully with a little more money in your bank account.
Faves: Jason Day (just a little)
Middle Tier: Tyrrell Hatton and Sungjae Im
Long shot: Si Woo Kim (nothing crazy, but also + $800 for top five, 16 for top 10)
Just a few bucks on: Byeong Hun An (because Karma) and Tiger Woods (5 bucks, just in case he does something Tiger-like)