Bet Golf: At the WGC Mexico, Mike Kern is laying off faves McIlroy and Johnson and playing long shots - Fleetwood, Casey, Garcia, Woodland
Last week I hope you at least took one of my longshot picks, Bryson DeChambeau, to finish in the top five. Because that’s exactly what he did, and you would have gotten a decent payout back since he went off at 55-1. Hedging your play is never a bad thing.
Now it’s on to the World Golf Championship event in Mexico, one of four such limited-field tournaments on the schedule.
And yes, defending Dustin Johnson has won this three times in the last five years (every odd-numbered year, actually), including once in Miami before the venue was moved to Mexico City.
World No. 1 Rory McIlroy, who was in contention last week before falling back on Sunday, is the favorite at plus $550. Johnson is next, at 7.5-1. Then there’s Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, at 9-1. And Webb Simpson, who’s been playing really well, at 14-1.
Hideki Matsuyama, who’s played well in WGCs, is 16-1, with Adam Scott, who’s coming off a win in Los Angeles in another elite field. Xander Schauffele is 18-1, Tommy Fleetwood 20-1 and DeChambeau 25-1. Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar are 33-1, Collin Morikawa and Louis Oosthuizen 35-1.
Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed are 45-1. Matthew Fitzpatrick, Marc Leishman, Brandt Snedeker and Gary Woodland are 50-1. Bubba Watson is 55-1. Jordan Spieth is one of three at 60-1, which would have once seemed unthinkable. That’s golf. There are others, obviously, but you can check their numbers out for yourself on the Parx app.
As usual, there’s a lot of ways I could go here. I just don’t see the value in taking McIlroy or even Johnson, though they’re certainly the faves for a reason. Thomas has finished in the top 10 all three times here, and you can actually get +200 on him just to get a top five. Which doesn’t seem like a bad play. And among the top choices he would be my lean.
That being said, I’m going to go down the list a little bit and pick Tommy Fleetwood, at 20-1, even though he’s still yet to win a PGA Tour event. He’s come close a few times. Maybe this will finally be his week. I think I’ve said that before though.
Since I’m staying away from the top faves, which can always be a mistake, I’m going to throw out more than the normal amount of longer shots. Or middle shots. I would look at Garcia at 45-1, and of course also take him to get a top five at 8-1. He’s had three top 12s here. So there is that. And he’s had two top 10s in his last three starts, after not playing so well for awhile.
I’ll also take a shot with Paul Casey, at 33-1. He tied for third here two years ago, and has a 16th and a 12. And how about at least a little something on Gary Woodland, at 50-1. Don’t ask why.
It should be worth noting that Tyrell Hatton, who was third in 2018 and 10th the year before that, is 80-1. And 12-1 to get a top five. But he hasn’t played since undergoing wrist surgery in November. But he won his last start, on the European Tour.
Remember, you don’t have to play a lot on any one bloke. Unless you’re convinced. And we’ve all had those feelings, right? Most of the time I’m more apt to spread it around and hope for a bigger payout. Sometimes it even works.