Dustin Johnson, seen last week at The Players, is the 5-1 favorite at the Valspar Championship. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
Dustin Johnson, seen last week at The Players, is the 5-1 favorite at the Valspar Championship. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)Associated Press

Golf: After a third brush with victory, Mike Kern looks to Valspar

Dustin Johnson is the heavy favorite in the final leg of the Florida swing

At this point, I’m surprised somebody hasn’t asked me to pee in a cup..

Hope you’ve been paying attention, and maybe even taken advantage of my golf picks. Because Lord knows I haven’t. You know, I’d probably only mush myself anyway.

Last week, I had Rory McIlroy at 12-1 to win The Players Championship. And darned if he didn’t do it. Heck, I almost had the exacta. Because one of my other three choices, Tommy Fleetwood at 25-1, was only two off the lead near the end when he hit a ball into the water at the infamous par-3 17th. Why ask why. I still was able to cash, which is all that counts.

For the record, that was my third win in about a month and a half. I had Phil Mickelson at Pebble Beach at 25, and Dustin Johnson at the World Golf Championships in Mexico at 10. And Fleetwood nearly got it done for me the week before at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Ditto Adam Scott last month at Torrey Pines, the week after Lefty won. I don’t know how to explain it. So just try and enjoy it for as long as it lasts.

I promise I’ll keep trying, even if I start missing cuts.

This week it’s the Valspar Championship, on the tough Copperhead Course at Innisbrook in Tampa. This is the fourth and final leg of the annual Florida swing. Which of course means the Masters can’t be that far off. And then the season will really begin.

Not shockingly, the favorite this week is Dustin Johnson, at 5-1, which is not a good investment. But it isn’t the strongest field, which can’t hurt his chances. With two wins in his last seven starts, he’s going to be one of the faves nearly every week. But he hasn’t played this event since 2010, which may or may not be a factor.

Jon Rahm is next, at 10-1, with Jason Day. Rahm has been in contention almost every week but for whatever reason has come up short. Maybe he’s due. Or maybe he, like a lot of the bigger names, is already kind of looking ahead to Augusta. Day has likewise been in contention all the time but hasn’t lifted a trophy in awhile. Sergio Garcia, who has played well here, is 18-1. As is Webb Simpson, Paul Casey, your defending champion, is 20. Ditto Gary Woodland and Patrick Reed, who has finished in the top 10 here three times in his last four appearances. That includes two runner-ups, one of which came a year ago. But he hasn’t been exactly lighting it up so far in 2019.

Henrik Stenson and Jim Furyk, who made a good run at TPC and won this thing in 2010, are 30-1. Brandt Snedeker is 40-1, Branden Grace, 60-1. Oops, almost forgot. Keegan Bradley and Louis Oosthuizen check in at 30-1 as well. Snedeker tied for fifth last week, and Grace tied for eighth here last year.

I could go a bunch of different ways. I have Reed in my yearlong pool, which usually isn’t a good sign. But I had Fleetwood in that last week and still went with him and it almost worked out. So you never know. I think I almost have to go with Reed, just because of his track record. You might want to look into playing him to be Top 5 or Top 10 too, as a decent hedge.

As for everyone else, since I always give you three and one is usually a longshot, I’ll take a chance on Snedeker at those numbers and simply hope that he keeps up his solid play. When his putter is hot, and it can be streaky, he can be that guy. For my third pick I was looking at both Rahm and Day. I can’t take both. That would be cheating, sort of. So after much pondering, and a flip of the coin, I’ll go with Day. Like McIlroy last week, he’s too good of a player not to keep coming close without something to show for it. That having been said, Rahm is in the same boat. So if nothing else I’ve probably just pushed him into the winner’s circle. Unless my recent en fuego-ness is not over yet. Wouldn’t that be something?

Don’t say you weren’t warned. Hey, I don’t get on rolls like this too often. So I have to ride it for all it’s worth, right? Like the craps table where some guy or gal keeps making their point. Love when that happens.

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