Golf: Mike Kern picks the Arnold Palmer and hopes for a good Day
I know that trying to give out a winner for the third time in four weeks -- after hitting on a 25-1 (Phil Mickelson) and then a 10-1 (Dustin Johnson) -- was probably asking way too much. But how was I to know that favorite Justin Thomas was going to break an iron on a tree in the first round of the Honda Classic? Of course he quickly fell back out of early contention before playing a good third round and finally fading on Sunday. It happens sometimes. You just don't want it happening to you. Hey, he might not have been a factor had it not happened. Besides, I never would have had Keith Mitchell at like 150-1 anyway. So there is that.
Now we move on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, where Tiger Woods has won eight times. But he became a late scratch, thanks to a neck injury that apparently has been bothering him for several weeks. Which is not the news most everyone wanted to hear with the Players Championship and Masters coming up. The 12th-ranked golfer on the food chain would have gone off at 10-1, not that it matters any more. Don't know if I would have went that way anyhow.
As for the people who are showing up, the field features 12 of the top 20 on the planet. The favorite is defending champion Rory McIlroy, who's listed at 7-1. He came in second two weeks ago and has four straight top five finishes. But he hasn't won since this event last year. And you know how I feel about going with chalk. Ditto asking guys to repeat.
Justin Rose is 10-1, followed by Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler at 12-1 Fowler is coming off a runner-up at Honda, and was third in this tourney in 2013. And he's already won this season. As has Rose by the way. Jason Day is 14-1. He won this thing in 2016. And has been playing well too. He just hasn't won in 10 months.
Bryson DeChambeau is 16-1, Hideki Matsuyama 20-1, reigning British Open champ Francesco Molinari 25-1 with Marc Leischman and Tommy Fleetwood. Reigning Masters champ Patrick Reed is 30-1. Mickelson is playing here for the first time since 2013, when he missed the cut. The course, which has a bunch of dogleg lefts, doesn't really suit his game.
Five others are at 40-1: Ian Poulter, Louis Oosthuizen, Charles Howell III, Bubba Watson and Billy Horschel.
This one has me a bit stumped, which trust me isn't unusual. All you do is make your best educated guesses and hope it's enough. As is my MO, I'll give you three.
I was going to take Rory, but I took the fave last week and felt bad doing it. So I'll instead go with Jason Day and Rickie Fowler. Day could be due, and should at the very least be in the hunt. Which is really all you can ask for. Until Sunday that is. Then greed sets in. Guys who finish second one week don't generally do too well the next. You can look it up. But Rickie has that look about him. Maybe he's just teasing us. For longer odds I'll throw in Fleetwood at 25-1 and Poulter at 40-1. OK, that's four. Consider it a bonus. As always, tread carefully out there. Because you never know when your best shot might break his club on something.