Our 3 Best NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, March 11
We have another six game slate tonight in the NBA on our Monday edition of best prop bets. We’ll take a look into a couple matchups and extract some value from the board.
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons
Gross. Here we have a matchup between the two of the Eastern Conference’s bottom dwellers in the Hornet and Pistons. Wins have come few and far between for both of these teams but I have my eye on two players in this one.
Starting on the Hornets side, I’m looking at Miles Bridges’ who has been on a tear since taking on the role of the leading scorer/highest usage player. This has gone hand in hand with the Hornets trading Terry Rozier and shutting down Lamelo Ball with an ankle injury.
Bridges has been playing almost 40 minutes per game this month and is racking up the counting stats on a nightly basis.
He’s averaged 22 points per game and 9 rebounds in the month of March, including a 3-16 performance against Orlando where he only scored 7 points.
I’m surprised to see his Points+Rebounds number at 31.5 (-110 at BetMGM). I would think it would be a tick higher in this matchup, but is likely derived from the lower total of 216.5.
Both of these teams rank in the bottom of the league in defensive rating and I’m surprised to see this low of a total when both teams are coming off of a day’s rest. The Pistons also play at a top ten pace in the league and while the Hornets aren’t a fast team, they still rank at about league average in terms of pace.
I think there will be more shots up than implied in this game which should allow Bridges to clear this total at 31.5. Bridges is a strong rebounder and plays closer to the basket, especially when Davis Bertans is in the game. I expect him to easily clear this figure in a game where he could go over with just his points alone.
Looking at the other side of the matchup, Cade Cunnigham has also been on a tear for the Pistons. The former #1 overall pick has averaged 23.5 points and 9.2 assists in his last five, while shooting at 40% from three. Cunningham has been putting up 7 threes per game, which is a full shot and a half higher than his season averages.
Caesar’s is giving us +140 for OVER 2.5 threes, which I find value in given the uptick in Cade’s willingness to shoot from deep. He’s shooting and making more and matching up against a poor defense in this one, which leads me to believe this line should be more like -110.
Play: Miles Bridges OVER 31.5 P+R (-110 BetMGM), Cade Cunningham OVER 2.5 3pt (+140 Caesar’s)
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
Here’s a simple one tonight with a line that’s just too high. We’ll be taking Julian Champagnie under 4.5 Rebounds + Assists at -120 at BetMGM.
I think this line is slightly skewed as Champagnie put up 7 rebounds and 5 assists in his previous game, also against the Warriors.
As you may know Victor Wembanyama has sat the last two games for the Spurs, but is not currently on the injury report for tonight’s matchup. Champagnie simply will not get enough minutes to clear this line with Wemby back in the lineup.
I expect the under to get even more juiced closer to gametime when the Wembanyama status is confirmed.
Play: Julian Champagnie UNDER 4.5 R+A (-120 BetMGM)