This is not the time you want to be facing off against the Aces. After a rocky start, this team has been making waves as they continue this hot streak. Unfortunately, the Liberty find themselves right in the path on the second night of a back-to-back road trip. That would be hard enough, but missing their best player in Stewart will make this an uphill battle for an already weary team. We’ll see if they can rally to knock off the Aces in Vegas tonight, or if the hot streak continues in the desert.
Isabelle Harrison Out
Breanna Stewart Out
Nyara Sabally Out
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
This is not what you want to see on your schedule if you’re the Liberty. After grabbing a solid win in LA last night, they’re back at it tonight against the Aces. I’d be a little more excited if we were seeing both of these teams at full strength, but the Liberty are far from it. Missing Stewart has knocked this team down a few pegs. However, that has opened up opportunities for other players to find their footing. Jones, in particular, is proving she still has it, as she has naturally taken over most of the missing Stewart's attempts. Cloud and Meesseman are two others who have stepped into larger roles, but Ionescu has experienced the biggest shift. She was given basically every shot she wanted after Stewart went down, and it didn’t exactly work out. During that time, they went on a four-game losing streak, and since then, we’ve seen this group lean more into team play instead of isolation. It’s turned things around too, with the Liberty going 4-1 over their last 5 games. It’s clear how this team has stepped up and continues to be one of the top contenders in the league.
As for the Aces, they’ve always had a cheat code in Wilson, but it took a while for this team to come together. However, now that everything feels in place, they’ve been running through teams left and right. They’re currently on a four-game winning streak as they climb the rankings. It really has been the Wilson show again, as she continues to lead in basically every statistical category on the team. Between her and Jackie Young, this team’s top talent is among the best in the league. The supporting cast has been the only thing holding them back. When they’re not clicking on offense, that’s where the team gets into trouble. Their defense has been nothing special all season, allowing nearly 83 points per game from their opponents. But, they’re more than capable of winning games in a fast-paced, offensive battle.
Between these two teams, I’d choose the Liberty’s roster almost every time if they were healthy. But given their current situation, this is much more of a pick’em game. Still, I believe in the Liberty winning on the road. Looking at the Aces' track record, they’ve been great at beating weaker teams, but in more competitive games, things haven’t gone their way. Their home court stats are a bit concerning, but the depth the Liberty have, along with their remaining top star power, is promising. That’s why I’m backing the Liberty moneyline, betting the over on the 172-point total, and taking the +3 points for New York.
Money line: NYL (+124) / LVA (-148)
Total Points: 172
Spread: +3 NLY (-115) / -3 LVA (-105)
With Sabrina falling short last night, I don’t see her bouncing back quickly on a back-to-back. We saw plenty of scoring from the rest of the Liberty, and at this point in the season, I could see Ionescu functioning as a spot-up scorer and facilitator again. She took significantly fewer shots, with only 8 attempts in 32 minutes on the court. Either way, this under is looking solid tonight.
Wilsone has bounced back after a small post-All-Star scoring slide. In her last three games, she’s been around the 30 points mark. Considering the line is still set at 22.5, and in her only full game against the Liberty she dropped 31, I like her odds tonight. Especially with the Liberty coming off a road back-to-back playing in LA last night. The home-court advantage should serve Wilson well!
We got burned on the Jones rebounds last game when she snagged 11. She’s been solid this year, but with the line jumping to 8.5 rebounds and the under still plus, it’s hard not to double down. She only had 9+ rebounds in four of her last ten games, so getting plus odds on her is actually a great deal. Especially with Wilson down low, if she can prevent some offensive boards, I doubt we’ll see Jones with back-to-back 9+ rebounding nights.