Well, you couldn't have picked two teams on more opposite trajectories. While the Dream continue to rise, the Storm have been fighting desperately for a single win. With both teams on five-game streaks, the Dream aim to maintain their dominance over an ailing Seattle.
Rhyne Howard Probable
Jordin Canada Out
Katie Lou Samuelson Out
It’s kind of unexplainable what has happened to Seattle. One minute, they’re one of the most challenging teams in the league, and the next, they can’t stop anyone. It’s not like their schedule has been easy, taking on the Lynx, Fever, and Aces, but still, this team touted themselves as one of the best in the league. However, they just can’t seem to stop anyone. They’ve been letting teams basically get whatever they want, which wasn’t an issue when the scoring was coming from everywhere. But with Diggins completely falling off late this year, the scoring has really only come through the frontcourt most games. In an act to stabilize the backcourt the Storm did acquire Brittney Sykes from DC recently, and in her first two games with the team, she has made them more competitive. Overall, Sykes could be the change the team needs to help wake up this backcourt a little. If they can get some production there and at least help a bit with the defense as well, there is still time to bounce back.
On the other hand, the Dream have been dominating the league this year. With a record of 20-11, we’ve watched them evolve from a decent team early in the season to an elite squad. Gray, in particular, has found her rhythm, which has completely raised the ceiling for this team. Between Gray, Canada, and Howard, the Dream might have the best backcourt when everyone is healthy. Even missing Canada tonight shouldn’t slow them down too much. Pairing this strong frontcourt of Griner and Jones has been the most effective part of the team. They are a well-rounded team inside and out, with options everywhere. They’ve become the gatekeeper of the league, really separating true contenders from pretenders.
Looking at this this matchup, I’m actually a bit surprised the sportsbooks have it so close. Given what we’ve seen from these teams, that the Dream would at least be favored. But hey, I won’t complain—I’ll take a hot team like the Dream at plus odds any day. Even with Sykes joining, I just don’t see the Storm competing with the Dream tonight. That’s why I’m going with the Dream moneyline, over on the 161 points total, and the Atlanta spread at +2.5.
Money line: ATL (+114) / SEA (-135)
Total Points: 161
Spread: +2.5 ATL (-110) / -2.5 SEA (-110)
I hate to keep doing this, but the unders on Diggins have been hitting. She’s been so impactful this year, but over the last couple of weeks, she has not looked right. There may be some underlying injury or maybe fatigue, but we haven’t seen the downhill explosive Diggins we’re used to in a while. Even with the line dropping to 13.5, I still think the under is a more appealing bet tonight.
Gray continues to lead this group in scoring. Averaging nearly 19 points per game this season, she’s someone who can really turn it on when she’s hot. In her first game against Seattle, she scored 28 points. The second game wasn’t as spectacular, but over her last ten games, she’s exceeded this line in six of them. Considering the Storm have been struggling a bit with their defense, the over looks like a great bet right now.
After her late-season trade to Seattle, Sykes is arriving at a much-needed time. The team's scoring continues to stagnate, with little production except near the basket. Despite having an off year shooting, Sykes still manages to spread the floor and hit perimeter shots. In her two games as a Storm, she has taken 35 shots from the field and is showing an early increase in shot efficiency compared to DC. With the line set at only 14.5, I believe she can run past that tonight with a few three-pointers falling.