The Dream are on the road for a single game against the Wings. With them splitting the series with Dallas 1-1 so far, this will be a close game. The Wings have struggled lately, but with a nice win against New York, they’re still a dangerous team.
Rhyne Howard Out
Maddy Siegrist Out
The Dream continue to march on. As one of the more stable teams this season, they’ve been sitting at 15-11. With the Wings falling much farther down in the standings, this shouldn't be a close game, but it feels like it will be. The Wings aren’t exactly as bad as their record suggests. At 8-19, the playoffs are out of the question, but that’s not what this season is for. This is the first step in a solid rebuild, and behind Paige Bueckers, this rebuild might be quick. Bueckers and this team in general have shown a lot of improvement in a short amount of time. But their lack of experience and, frankly, size in the post has held them back. They’re still feisty, with plenty of fight in them, but with a limited set of scorers and a defense that doesn’t stop anyone, wins are hard to come by. Overall though, if the shot is falling, this team can keep up. Their offense is right in the middle of the league for points per game. They’ve already beaten the Dream once, so Atlanta is going to have to bring their A game.
If the Dream were fully healthy, this might be a slightly more one-sided affair. However, with Howard still sidelined, the Dream are missing a key scorer. We’ve seen a few players like Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada step up, but missing your number two scorer hurts what this team can do. They’re going to have to focus on exploiting the post game. Dallas doesn’t have great rim protection, so if the Dream can get the ball to the post, they’ll find plenty of high-percentage shots.
Overall, this matchup will be interesting, but I think the Dream still hold an advantage. Gray has been excellent lately, and with the Wings' weak defense, they’ll struggle today. That’s why I’m choosing the Dream on the moneyline, the under on 166.5 total points, and the -3.5 Atlanta spread.
Money line: ATL (-175) / DAL (+145)
Total Points: 166.5
Spread: -3.5 ATL (-115) / +3.5 DAL (-105)
We’re riding the Bueckers train again today with another over. She’s been scoring quite consistently, especially since the book lowered the line to 16.5 points. The Dream do have a strong perimeter defense, but considering how Bueckers is playing, this should be very achievable for her. After scoring 20 points in her last game and averaging 18 points this season, this line looks very appealing.
Griner continues to dominate against teams lately. Although her last game finished just shy of 12 with only 9 points, she’s been consistently hitting her line all month. I also like the matchup for her. The Wings are small without Siegrist; they do have Yueru, but she should be able to score over her. As long as the Dream use her in the post and don't shoot too much from the perimeter, she should have a good chance of hitting the over.
The line has shifted a bit for Canada recently. Now at 6.5 assists for the over/under, it’s a much tougher call. She’s right around that range, but considering some of the defenders the Wings have, I think she’ll fall short. In about half her games this July, she’s been just under this mark at 6 assists, and she’s only averaging 5.4 per game this season. It’s going to be a coin flip, but the under has a slight advantage.