This is going to be the matchup of the night, with the Mercury and Liberty squaring off for the third time this year. With the Mercury holding a 2-0 lead over the Liberty this season, they’ve been one of the few teams to have their number. We’ll see if the Liberty can bounce back or if the Mercury simply have them outmatched.
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Nyara Sabally Out
Emma Meesseman Questionable
We’ve already seen some exciting games between these two, but now that the Mercury are back in NY, we’ll see how they perform. They pulled off a win last time, 89-81, showing they can get it done on the road. The Mercury may be one of the few teams outside of the Lynx that can truly match up against the Liberty. They have the size, shooting, and defense to slow down every aspect of the Liberty.
Satuo Sabally has been the key issue, not to be confused with her sister Nyara Sabally on the Liberty, who unfortunately won’t play tonight. Regardless, Satuo is the perfect combination of size and shooting ability, able to slip between Stewart and Ionescu. At 6’4" and with her shooting skills, she can’t really be contained. Either you assign a smaller guard to prevent her outside shot or switch a forward onto her to stop her from attacking the post. There are a few players who can do both, but the Liberty aren’t among them. Combine her efforts with Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper’s return, and you can see why this team has been climbing the standings. Overall, her scoring in the post combined with gritty, strong defense will be a huge challenge for the Liberty.
It’s not like the Liberty are pushovers, though; they’re one of the best offenses in the entire league. They lead in points per game and three-point percentage. But it’s not just offense — they also lead the league in steals per game. This group is a hornets’ nest on defense. As soon as you put your head down to drive into the paint, their hands are all over swiping at the ball. It’s a brutal mix of efficiency, size, and team defense that won them the title last year. Looking as good as ever, they should be right in the game again tonight.
Overall, it’s going to be close. The Mercury have just shown a little more punch while facing the Liberty so far this season. I think they’ll sneak out this win again on the road, so I’m taking the Mercury moneyline, the over on 170.5 total points, and the Phoenix spread at +6.
Money line: PHO (+220) / NYL (-270)
Total Points: 170.5
Spread: +6 PHO (-112) / -6 NYL (-108)
With Ionescu slowing down recently, it seems like the season might have caught up to her a bit. Her points per game have dropped over the last five games, and in her most recent game against the Mercury, she scored only 9 points. It’s mainly been her three-point shot that’s disappeared, which continues to reduce her shot volume. If this trend continues, it will be challenging for her to go over.
Sabally has continued her streak this year as one of the top scoring bigs in the game. Averaging nearly 19 points a game on excellent shooting splits, she’s the ideal weapon to take on the Liberty again. With two wins over them this year already, she’s averaging 20 points against them. As long as her three-pointer is falling, 17 points seems very doable tonight.
I like this line for Stewart. At 6.5, this offers solid value for the under, considering she’s averaging 6.7 rebounds per game. In her last two games against the Mercury, she wasn’t impactful on the boards either, grabbing only 3 and 5 rebounds. The Mercury have the size to force Stewart to operate further out of the paint. She’s hit the over on this line only 10 out of 22 games, so it’s a bit of a toss-up, but I think we’ll see her finish below this line.