Although the Sparks have had a slow start due to some key injuries, the Aces are really hitting their stride! With A’ja Wilson at the helm taking on her former teammate Kelsey Plum, this will be an interesting matchup. We’ll see if the Sparks can right the ship tonight or if the Aces continue to climb the rankings.
Megan Gustafson Out
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
Julie Allemand Out
Cameron Brink Out
Rae Burrell Out
Things have not gone according to plan for the Sparks this season. With a 3-7 record to start, it' s going to be a challenge to climb out of the bottom of the rankings. However, with Brink still out, the expectations for this group have remained relatively grounded. With a solid roster, they're missing Brink as the X- factor to fill in all the little gaps on both defense and offense. With her timeline still uncertain, relief doesn't seem to be coming soon. In the meantime, Kelsey Plum has been doing everything she can to hold things together. It's been her, Hamby, and Stevens as the trio, but it's been tough.
One of the biggest issues the Sparks have faced has been their ability to spread the floor. Yes, Plum has managed to maintain decent percentages from three, but after her, it gets a bit rough, with the team averaging 34%. It's not the worst in the league, but that's everything about this team; they're just middle of the pack. It's hard to identify anything the Sparks are doing that they excel at; they are certainly good at most things, but without that “it” quality, they're not going anywhere.
You could almost say the same thing about the Aces, but Wilson has been their “it” factor. Statistically, these teams are actually quite similar across the board, but when the going gets tough, LA just doesn't have that person who can take over. Wilson has straight up won a few of these games for the Aces, doing pretty much everything. She's literally leading the team in every major counting stat. There is some concern that the team around her isn't as deep as the Sparks, but I don't think it matters.
Ultimately, this game is probably going to be closer than the sportsbooks think. I believe the Sparks have a good enough roster to keep things close, even though the last game was a blowout. However, I just can't commit to the Sparks tonight with them still missing Brink, especially on the road in Vegas. That's why I'm taking the Aces moneyline, the over on the 166.5. 5 points total, and the Sparks + 9 spread.
Money line: LAS (+340) / LVA (-440)
Total Points: 166.5
Spread: +9 LAS (-110) / -9 LVA (-110)
Despite scoring over 30 the last time the Aces played the Sparks, Wilson’s scoring numbers have been more modest. She’s only had three games over this line all season, and even with the Sparks still dealing with injuries, I don’t think she’ll cross the 25-point line again tonight. Averaging just 22 points a game on the season, with a few early outlier games, my gut is telling me to hit the under on this one.
Young seems like the better scoring option tonight against the Sparks. In terms of scoring, she’s fallen off a bit over the last couple of games, but prior to that, she was averaging nearly 20 points per game. She’s been formidable inside, and if the Sparks direct more of their defensive focus toward Wilson, I could see Young having another standout night!
Hamby continues to be a force on the boards for the Sparks. With 9 rebounds in her last game and 10 the last time they played against the Aces, going over 7.5 looks solid. She’s already averaging nearly 8 a game this season. The Sparks will need her for pretty much the entire game with the Aces sending Wilson and Young to the paint. As long as she doesn’t get into foul trouble, she’ll likely see enough time on the court to achieve this one.
Plum has been doing her best to facilitate for this team, but she’s been inconsistent in collecting assists. In her last game against the Aces, she managed only three, with her average sitting at 5.5. This game could go either way. With the under getting slightly more value, and this being a coin flip line, it’s looking like the right move tonight.