This is the first time we see these two play in the regular season. With the Mercury looking solid this year, they’ve faced some injury problems early in the season. That might be the opening that the Valkyrie need to compete in this game. They’ve struggled in their first season trying to build a team from scratch, but things are coming together. This should be a great matchup.
Megan McConnell Out
Natasha Mack Out
Sami Whitcomb Probable
Alyssa Thomas Out
Tiffany Hayes Out
This should be a solid battle between two teams on opposite ends of the standings. The Mercury have been strong, with a 5-3 record so far this season, while Golden State hasn’t been as fortunate, sitting at just 2-4. This is a new franchise, however, and with a challenging early schedule, having already played the Liberty and Lynx three times, I don’t think their record truly reflects their talent. They’re not yet a top-tier team in the league, but they do have some emerging talent worth watching.
Janelle Salaun is one of the most intriguing players on the team. The sister of Tijdane Salaun, the French star taken 6th in last year’s NBA draft, she possesses significant talent. At only 23 years old, she’s already on track to become the best player on the Valkyries. She’s tied as the scoring leader on the team and is leading in rebounding after five games this year. She’s a tall, athletic shooter with all the physical attributes to excel in this league. She’ll be a key player in tonight's game with her ability to space the floor for her teammates. However, as a team, the Valkyries desperately need to improve their scoring. They’re shooting under 40% from the field, which has constrained them throughout the season. I believe their schedule has played a part in this, and facing the Liberty twice hasn't helped their shooting statistics. Still, it’s going to be an uphill battle.
For the Mercury, this game will revolve around Sabally. She has been the backbone of this team, especially with Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack sidelined. Sabally has been performing well so far, but they’ve had a relatively weak schedule; they’ve dominated lesser teams early on but lost twice to Minnesota. They’re likely the stronger team in this matchup, especially playing on their home court, but I expect the game to remain close tonight.
This matchup will come down to three-point shooting. I don’t think the Valkyries have the size to match up well in the post against the Mercury, but they do have shooters. If they can find a hot shooting hand and hit some threes to stretch the Mercury defense, it could keep the game tight. However, it’s probably more likely that Phoenix will be able to get the ball inside and find easier shots at the rim. As much as I want to believe in this Valkyries team, it’s just too inexperienced. That’s why I’m going with the Mercury moneyline, the over on the 157 total points line, and a +6.5 spread on Golden State.
Money line: GSV (+210) / PHO (-258)
Total Points: 157
Spread: +6.5 GSV (-115) / -6.5 PHO (-105)
Sabally has been great all year, averaging 20 points per game; she’s been rock solid. However, I believe the value for betting is on the under. She’s already missed this line in half of their games this year. Even though the Valkyries aren’t the most elite team, they’re solid, especially with the Mercury dealing with some injuries. I could see this defense swarm her and make life challenging. I’d stick with the under tonight.
Salaun has been posting solid numbers to start the year. Her rebounding stats have been impressive, averaging 7 boards a game, so it’s a bit odd that the line is set so low for her. She’s been under 6 rebounds only once this season. She’s quietly become one of the best players on this team.
Burton has started a bit slowly, but her numbers have been improving. As the lead ball handler, she has been doing a better job of playmaking recently. She is averaging 4 assists per game, which I expect will rise as the season progresses. She has only been below 4 assists three times this year, with a low of 3. She should be right around this mark, but against the Mercury, I believe she will be able to achieve it.