WNBA Sunday: O'Sullivan picks Aces at Wings, Sun at Liberty, Fever at Dream, Mercury at Storm, Lynx at Sparks
Okay. Today’s the last slate of WNBA games for a month. None of these teams will want to go into the break with a loss, so they’ll all be playing hard, and that’s a huge factor . . .
. . . and like the teams, I’m not interested in having to think about a losing day until the end of August. So let’s be smart today, make some money, and give ourselves August to enjoy the memories of a solid first half of the season.
Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 63-54-1
Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings, 1 pm EDT
The Pick: Las Vegas (-158)
Both teams have dropped their last two games. In fact, both teams lost their last game to Minnesota. However, in the Aces’ loss to the Lynx, they were without Liz Cambage (and thanks again, Australia, for giving us gamblers one hour’s notice with that scratch) and Sylvia Fowles went to town down low. So Las Vegas’ loss is a bit explainable. The Aces are 6-3 on the road. To me, the most interesting matchup isn’t with the starters. It’s with Wings Marina Mabrey and Aces Kelsey Plum coming off the bench. I think Plum is playing terrific, propulsive, unafraid basketball. She continues her good play, and the Aces win. I’ll give up a little value for a straight victory.
Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty, 2 pm EDT
The Pick: Connecticut (-375)
I know, I’m ignoring a home dog alert here. That’s why I’ll play it conservative and just take the Sun money line. I just don’t like Liberty’s streakiness and reliance on the three-point shot. In their last meeting, Connecticut blew New York out by more than 20. Jonquel Jones and DeWanna Bonner are just too much for the Liberty inside. As I harp on seemingly every day, if Connecticut’s players are as animated guarding the three-point line as their coach Curt Miller is jumping around the sideline (I could use fewer camera shots of that, please), they should get the win.
Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream, 5 pm EDT
The Pick: Atlanta (-250)
If -375 isn’t gonna scare me off the Sun, I’ll certainly settle for -250 with the Dream. I know I’m being cautious today but again, I’m gonna have a month to ponder these choices, and money’s money. Also, Indiana’s on a two-game winning streak. Atlanta’s dropped three in a row, but they were to the WNBA’s top three teams, so (shrug). I think Indiana wasn’t as bad as that twelve-game losing streak, but they’ve yet to win on the road. So I’ll give up some value and take a smaller return for a Dream victory.
Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm, 6 pm EDT
The Pick: Seattle (-400)
Again, I understand I’m playing it safe here. If anything, this is a revenge game for Seattle after losing to Phoenix on Friday. But the Storm simply doesn’t cover at home, so I’m gonna stick with the money line. I think the Mercury have been playing above their head, and the Storm should take care of business. I mean, come on, Storm; sheesh.
Minnesota Lynx at Los Angeles Sparks, 9 pm EDT
The Pick: Minnesota (-350), Minnesota -7.5 (-110)
Continuing my mindset, if I’m comfortable taking a -400 money line, I’ll take -350 in a heartbeat. Minnesota has won six in a row, and in many ways are playing like the best team in the WNBA. Los Angeles has, uh, not been playing like that. But I’m going to ignore the “home dog alert” here. Put a little more on the money line and consider the cover gravy. The Lynx have really been crushing it lately, and I think they go into the break on a high note . . . just like I will.