The Florida Panthers have stormed out to a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals, which totally surprised everyone, but things shift down to Florida for Game 3 on Friday night, and all signs point to a Carolina bounce-back.
Florida has looked dominant, outscoring the Canes 10-2 through two games, but the underlying numbers suggest this series isn’t over just yet. We’re not going to overlook how solid they’ve looked so far, but let's keep in mind that Carolina has shown extreme resilience so far in the playoffs.
The Panthers have been red-hot offensively, with Sam Reinhart leading the way with 39 goals and 81 points on the year. He’s found the net 3 times in the first 2 games of the series, including 2 power-play goals. Florida is now converting power plays at a 27.3% clip in the playoffs — second only to the Kings who are out — and they've gotten goals from up and down the lineup.
Game 2 was an absolute showcase of talent. Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett (twice), and Aleksander Barkov all scored, while the Panthers capitalized on both of their man-advantage chances. They outhit Carolina 56-42, blocked 19 shots, and even played their brand of physical, opportunistic hockey. It was a spectacle and made for great one-way hockey.
But here’s the thing — Carolina didn’t play as poorly as the score suggests. They had more faceoff wins, more takeaways, fewer giveaways, and they actually limited Florida to just 21 shots. The 5-0 score? It came on elite finishing in the slot and not necessarily lopsided play.
Of course, the bookmakers are buying into Florida’s momentum. The Panthers are -155 favorites, with the Hurricanes at +130 on the moneyline. That’s a big shift from earlier in the series, so it’s only recency that’s playing a role here.
The puck line has Carolina at +1.5 at -218 and Florida at -1.5 at +180. The total is set at 5.5, with the over at +105 and the under-juiced at -125.
But while the line favors Florida, this spot screams value for the Canes. This might be some of the easiest money we made all playoffs.
For starters, this team is simply too good to fall down 3-0. Just look what they did to the Caps, one of the best teams in the NHL.
The Canes were a top-5 team during the regular season and ranked 7th in playoff scoring at 3.00 GF/G, despite being shut out in Game 2. Their power play is still productive at 25.6%, and Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis are nonetheless top-tier talents. Aho leads Carolina with 74 points, including 45 assists on the season, while Jarvis has 32 goals, 7 of them on the power play. They have the talent to get the job done.
The Hurricanes have also posted the second-fewest giveaways in the playoffs and are one of the better teams at suppressing shots. Their PK% is a lowly 77.3%, and that’s been exploited by Florida’s lethal power play, but that’s an adjustment they can make.
And then there’s motivation. Game 2’s beatdown will sting, but they’ll get over it. You can expect Carolina to come out physically, hungry, and desperate. They’ve done it before in this postseason so there’s no reason they can’t do it again.
Game 3 is set up for a Hurricanes response. Sure, Florida has been sharp, but their scoring is likely to regress a bit and we’re not so sure they can keep up this kind of pressure.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Hurricanes 3, Panthers 2
Best Bet: Carolina Hurricanes moneyline at +130
Carolina doesn’t need to blow them out — they just need to convert on chances and stay out of the box.
We think they will. There’s too much talent, too much urgency, and there’s no way they keep the slide going. The odds are too good to pass up.