The Western Conference Final kicks off tonight with a huge showdown between two of the NHL’s best teams, as the Edmonton Oilers visit the Dallas Stars in Game 1. These teams clashed in last year’s West Final where the Oilers beat the Stars 4 games to 2, and they’re back at it again with slightly different rosters but the same ultimate goal — a trip to the Stanley Cup Final.
This isn’t just a clash of teams. Instead, this is a battle of philosophies. The Oilers play fast, loose, and highly skilled hockey. They’re built around big stars and undeniable elite scoring. The Stars take a bit of a different route as they thrive on balance, structure, and elite goaltending.
Game 1 should give us a clear sense of which approach has the upper hand this time around. The best part of it is there are some excellent betting opportunities for tonight’s game.
Edmonton’s path to the conference final wasn’t easy, but they sure did make it look smoother than expected. They handled the Kings and Golden Knights with their lethal combination of speed, transition play, and offensive finishing. They’ve only lost 3 games in 2 series of the playoffs.
Connor McDavid is again proving he’s the best player on the planet with 17 points in 11 games which includes 14 assists. Right behind him is Leon Draisaitl, who leads the team in goals with 5 and has 16 points overall. These duo continues to carry the offensive load, but they’re not alone. The rest of the team is pulling their weight as well.
Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each have 8+ points, and Zach Hyman continues to make an impact on both ends of the ice. Edmonton leads the remaining playoff teams with 3.91 GF/G and is just 2nd to Florida with a total of 116 points in 11 games. Their power play unit remains deadly, operating at 25%, and they’ve been firing 360 shots already this postseason. They’re clearly firing on all cylinders in the zone.
But for all their offensive firepower, goaltending is still a concern. Stuart Skinner was shaky early, and while Calvin Pickard has gone 6-0 since taking over, his .888 SV% and 2.84 GAA are simply average. Edmonton has allowed 3.09 GA/A in the playoffs, and their PK unit has been downright bad with just a 66.7% success rate, the worst among remaining teams and it’s not even close. That’s the kind of hole that could decide a series. Fortunately, they have the fewest PIM of the remaining teams so they’ve got the discipline.
Dallas, on the other hand, does not rely on just 1-2 stars.
Mikko Rantanen is their leading scorer this postseason with 19 points which includes 9 goals and 10 assists. Thomas Harley has come out as a breakout performer on the blue line with 11 points of his own, and veterans like Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, and Mikael Granlund have chipped in consistently. It’s depth scoring at its finest and that’s the type of hockey teams need to go deep into the playoffs.
While they don’t score like the Oilers with just 2.62 GF/G, the Stars play the kind of team game that wins in the playoffs. Their defensive core — led by Harley, Miro Heiskanen, and Esa Lindell — is keeping things clean in front of Jake Oettinger, who’s been excellent with a .919 SV% and a 2.92 GAA. That’s miles ahead of what Edmonton’s goalies have produced.
Another big advantage for Dallas is their PK, which ranks among the top 3 in the playoffs at 86%. That could be huge against Edmonton’s top power-play unit which sits at 25.0%. On top of that, Dallas's power play unit is rocking at 30.8% which means they’ll capitalize on any indiscipline the Oilers have.
Game 1 is often about tone-setting. The team that controls pace early usually dictates the series as their backs aren’t against the wall and it creates a snowball effect. In this matchup, that edge goes to Dallas.
The Stars have home-ice advantage, much better goaltending, and a more complete team from top to bottom. Jake Oettinger is on fire as of late, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will have to do a lot of heavy lifting to keep the Oilers afloat. If the Stars can shut down the top Edmonton line — as they’ve done to stars on the Avalanche and Jets in their last 2 series — they’ll have a real shot at controlling this game for a full 60 minutes.
BettorsInsider's Prediction: Stars 4, Oilers 3
Best Bet: Dallas Stars moneyline at -130
Yes, Edmonton has the offensive firepower to steal games, but over a full 60 minutes, Dallas' defensive structure, goaltending, and special teams should give them the edge in Game 1.
We’re pretty sure that this series will go the distance, but the Stars look better positioned to take the opener. Each team will look to make adjustments for each game in the series.