Tonight’s game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre is one of the better games on the 8-game slate. It’s looking like it’s going to be a pretty solid Atlantic Division battle. The Lightning enters as road favorites with a moneyline of just -150, while the Canadiens sit at +125 as underdogs. This isn’t a huge disparity which tells us this game might be closer than you think.
With the Canadiens already leading the season series 1-0 after a decisive 5-2 victory back in December, Tampa Bay will be coming onto the ice tonight looking to even things up.
Before you place your bets on tonight’s game, here’s our expert analysis and best bet.
The Lightning is bringing a solid 25-17-3 record to the game which is good for 3rd in the Atlantic Division.
On the other hand, the Canadiens have played way above expectations and they’re sitting at 23-19-4 — though they are 6th in the division only 3 points behind the Lightning.
Both teams are trending in opposite directions of late, with the Canadiens riding momentum while Tampa Bay has been a little more inconsistent.
Tampa Bay’s strength really lies in its high-octane offense. They rank 2nd in goals scored this season with 164 and tied for 2nd in shooting percentage at 12.7%.
Nikita Kucherov, with his team-leading 68 points, is at the center of their attack. Of course, he has excellent support from Brayden Point who has netted 27 goals on his own. Despite these strong offensive numbers, you might be surprised to learn that the Lightning has been outscored 8-6 in their last 2 games, exposing some defensive weakness.
Montreal’s offense pales in comparison overall. They rank 16th in goals scored with 140, but they’ve managed to find ways to win fairly often, going 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Cole Caufield leads the charge with 24 goals, and their recent 5-4 win over the Rangers just goes to show that they can grind out results.
Defensively, Tampa Bay’s edge is clear. They rank 8th in goals allowed with just 127, with Andrei Vasilevskiy posting a dominant .915 save percentage. Montreal has struggled in their own zone, ranking just 26th in goals allowed with 153. Sam Montembeault, their primary goaltender, has been a little shaky as he’s holding a 3.00 GAA and just a .897 save percentage.
On paper, this game looks like it could go either way, but no matter how you cut it, only one team can walk away with 2 points on the night.
While Montreal is coming off an impressive stretch, we’re thinking that their weaknesses on defense and in net could be their undoing against Tampa Bay’s elite offense.
The Lightning’s experience and star power give them the upper hand in this matchup, especially after a loss to Toronto last nigh,twhicht is sure to motivate them. They might be a bit fatigued after that game, but we’re sure they’ll manage just fine.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Montreal Canadiens 2
Best Bet: Lightning moneyline (-150)
Tampa Bay’s offense should have no trouble breaking through against a Canadiens defense that has allowed way too many high-danger chances this season. While we do think that the Lightning will walk away with the win, this might be too close to take the puck line on, so, we’re staying away from that.
For those interested in throwing money down on totals, the under (6.5) at -105 is worth a look. Despite Montreal’s recent high-scoring games, Tampa Bay’s defense and goaltending should limit their opportunities, keeping the total manageable.
We expect the Lightning to control the tempo of the game and deliver a rebound performance to even the season series at one game a piece.