The New York Rangers are facing off against the Buffalo Sabres in what is going to be an exciting midseason NHL matchup tonight at KeyBank Center. The Rangers, holding their own with their 14-12-1 record and fifth in the Metropolitan Division, are slight favorites with a -140 moneyline. The Sabres, sitting at 11-13-4 in the Atlantic Division, hold +120 odds to pull off the win.
So, who’s going to walk away with 2 points tonight? We’ve got the analysis and the prediction for the Rangers vs. Sabres game tonight.
The over/under for this matchup is set at 6 goals, with the public heavily favoring the Rangers on the ML.
A whopping 75% of bets and 79% of money back the Rangers to come out on top despite just being slightly favored. On the puck line, the Rangers are +170 to cover -1.5, while the Sabres are -210 to stay within +1.5 goals.
Recent trends show some shaky performances for both squads as they head into tonight’s game.
The Rangers are only 2-8-0 in their last 10 games, and their scoring output has dipped quite a bit over that time, with an average of 2.5 goals per game. Compared to their season-long average of 4.2, they’re undoubtedly slumping.
The Sabres haven’t managed much better with a 3-4-3 record in their past 10 games. This is in part due to their offensive production faltering quite a bit as they’re averaging 1.9 fewer goals per game than their season average of 3.0.
The Rangers and Sabres have already clashed once this season, with Buffalo taking a decisive 6-1 victory way back on November 7.
That win, combined with Buffalo’s home-ice advantage, gives the Sabres some confidence heading into tonight’s rematch. This will be the 2nd of 3 games these teams play against each other during the regular season.
However, we can’t overlook the fact that the Rangers boast significant strengths as well.
Artemi Panarin continues to shine. He leads the team with 33 points (15 goals and 18 assists). On defense, Adam Fox provides stability and playmaking with 22 assists, overall not too bad. Goalie Igor Shesterkin, despite having a decent .910 save percentage on the season, has struggled at times to carry the team in tight matchups.
Buffalo, on the other hand, has faced its share of challenges with injuries to key players like Rasmus Dahlin and Sam Lafferty who are both out for tonight’s game. Forward Alex Tuch, undeniably the star of the team, leads the Sabres offensively with 24 points, and no signs of slowing down. Goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been steady between the pipes, though not spectacular, with a decent .902 save percentage.
Looking at team stats, the Rangers have a clear advantage in special teams. They rank 12th in power-play efficiency as they’re scoring 22.5% of the time and 2nd in penalty killing (85.9%). The Sabres, on the other hand, sit near the bottom of the league at 30th in power-play success (14.5%).
If this game comes down to who’s in the penalty box, it’s safe to say which way this game will go.
The Rangers have struggled to find any amount of consistency lately, but Buffalo’s recent form doesn’t inspire much confidence either. It feels like a stalemate of struggling teams.
However, either the Rangers or the Sabres have to walk away with a win.
With Buffalo missing one of their top defenders in Dahlin and facing a Rangers team eager to rebound from their recent struggles, we think New York holds the edge in this game. We expect Shesterkin to bounce back and Panarin to continue in his stellar ways against a Sabres defense that has been struggling as of late.
We would take the New York Rangers moneyline at -140.
While the Rangers have not found their rhythm in recent games, their dominant and unstoppable special teams and depth give them the tools to secure a much-needed win.
On top of that, the under-6 goals (-115) are something you might want to look at given both teams’ declining scoring trends in recent games.