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This divisional round matchup between San Francisco and Seattle still leaves me scratching my head. How are the 49ers getting 7-7.5 points when they have been knocking at the Super Bowl doors since 2019?
Since 2019, the 49ers have made the conference championship or Super Bowl four times. I believe this line is a textbook example of market overreaction. We just watched San Francisco lose at home 13-3, for the NFC’s number 1 seed.
What makes this a tricky spot is that San Francisco is almost always the public team, and they should be getting the recency bias based on a road win as 6-point dogs against the defending Super Bowl champs.
In my opinion, this is also a clear revenge spot for San Francisco. That loss directly cost them home-field advantage, and now they get a chance to respond with everything on the line.
The 49ers rank 1st in the league in third-down conversion at 49.8%, compared to Seattle allowing just over 32% on defense. That gap matters, even if it played out differently two weeks ago. It will be more difficult for Seattle to stop San Francisco from moving the chains this time around.
In the red zone, San Francisco converts touchdowns at a 65.2% rate, which ranks top-five in the league. Seattle’s red zone offense sits closer to league average, and San Francisco’s defense holds opponents under 55% once they reach the red area. Red-zone scoring is critical when getting points on the road.
San Francisco also averages over 22 first downs per game, ranking inside the top three in the NFL, while Seattle relies heavily on forcing mistakes rather than consistently putting teams in longer down situations.
This is where the experience gap matters, and why I am planting my flag with San Francisco. Brock Purdy is 5–2 in playoff games and has already proven he can execute in the most hostile environments, on the road. He operates this offense with poise and efficiency, he protects the football, and he knows how to use his feet to keep the chains moving.
On the other sideline, Seattle enters this game with a first-year head coach making his playoff debut. While Seattle’s defense has been elite statistically, playoff football often comes down to possession by possession, situational decision-making, and clock management, all areas in which I would like to believe Kyle Shanahan has a massive edge.
Shanahan is 9–4 straight up in playoff games and has consistently kept his teams competitive even as underdogs. Getting over a touchdown with that experience advantage is rare this late in the postseason, which is why I am still scratching my head at this line. In my world, this should be a 2.5-3.5 spread AT MOST!
San Francisco has covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings against Seattle, including multiple games played on the road. Even in losses, these games have stayed within one possession, and that matters when nerves are at their highest.
Seattle has had a lot of luck this season in winning turnover battles, but sometimes that's all a team needs to get the ball to bounce their way. Seattle absolutely had impressive wins vs LA Rams and San Francisco late in the season to lock in the division.
However, it is hard to be a proven and experienced winner in short weeks. San Francisco was one game away from the #1 seed and is closer to a top five team than a touchdown underdog.
Best Bet: 49ers +7.5 (-116, ProphetX)
Sprinkle: 49ers Moneyline (+290, Novig)