Baltimore heads into this matchup with all eyes on a divisional crown and making the playoffs. To get there, they have to keep stacking wins and get through one of the NFL’s top teams through fifteen weeks.
This young New England Patriots squad has taken the NFL audience by storm this season. After dropping a huge division game last week, can they strap it back up in a tough travel spot?
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Baltimore enters Sunday night in a must-win situation. They currently sit in second place at 7–7 and are fighting to stay ahead in the AFC North playoff race. The urgency is clear, after their defense showed out last week, holding Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense to zero points.
Not only can the Ravens build on this spot, but the matchup also sets up favorably against a New England team coming off a crushing emotional loss, compounded by the fact that they are traveling on the road, no matter how close the two cities are.
The Patriots blew a 21–0 lead last week in what was a statement opportunity against a division rival, a type of collapse that could linger into the next week, especially for a young roster. I just don’t see the veteran leadership on the field that could snap them right back into place. Vrabel is a heck of a head coach, but he doesn’t play between the lines.
From a matchup perspective, Baltimore holds a couple of advantages that could matter in a tight game. Offensively, the Ravens rank top 10 in yards per play and top three in rushing offense, while New England’s defense has struggled to generate consistent pressure and ranks dead last (32) in red-zone efficiency allowed. If Baltimore can get to the red zone, their chances of converting points are high.
Baltimore’s ability to control the game on the ground is especially important against a Patriots defense that has been vulnerable to physical rushing attacks. It can also keep the ball away from any explosive plays Drake Maye or the running game has to offer for New England.
On the other side of the ball, New England’s offense has benefited from a weaker schedule and now faces a step up in competition. Baltimore’s defense ranks inside the top 10 in red-zone efficiency and yards per play allowed, which should help limit those explosive plays, turning touchdowns into field goals and punts.
The betting market further supports Baltimore. Look-ahead lines for this matchup opened in the Ravens -8.5 to -9 range, making the current number a significant adjustment. Are the Patriots really 6-7 points better than the Ravens since August?
Also, the public looks to be very heavy on the Patriots this week, taking 60-70% of the tickets, while sitting as the dog. Perhaps this is another classic, fade the public dog spot!
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-121, BetRivers)