Welcome to Monday Night Football, sports betting family. We won our best bet on the Vikings last night, and you better believe we sprinkled the money line. Unfortunately, our two Anytime TD props were both losers, so it was a disappointing day overall. Let's shake it off and get right with a winner tonight in primetime.
Both Miami and Pittsburgh are coming off wins last week over the Jets and Ravens, respectively. Both teams are technically still in the playoff race, but Miami's hopes are very slim, and they'll need a lot of help to get in. Will the Dolphins be able to overcome a rowdy Monday night crowd in the Steel City?
Good luck and enjoy the game! I've got a best bet on this game below that'll hopefully build your bankroll. Let's get into the nitty gritty details.
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Online sportsbooks opened this line at Steelers -3 on the look-ahead last week. Some initial early money pushed the line to Steelers -3.5. However, there was a quick buyback on Miami that pulled the line back to Steelers -3 shortly thereafter. That's still where we sit as of Monday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a little bit of Under money in the market so far. The line opened at 43.5, and most shops are now offering 42.5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger on any bet.
The Dolphins were 1-6 to start 2025, and everybody and their brother thought that the team would quit on head coach Mike McDaniel. Surprisingly, though, the squad has rallied around McDaniel and has won five of its last six ball games. According to multiple reports, Miami still has a mathematical chance at a playoff berth, which would have been unthinkable six weeks ago.
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa still throws the slant better than anyone, but he still tends to put the ball in harm's way at a high level. The former Alabama star's toughness can never be questioned, but his 14 interceptions make even the most optimistic fans a little worried.
The main man of the Dolphins' offense is De'Von Achane, who has already run for 1,126 yards and 7 touchdowns. The former Texas A&M standout has also found the end zone 4 times as a receiver. Miami has struggled on the defensive end of the ball, but its sack rate has steadily improved over the last month.
It's been a roller coaster of a season for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. They're currently leading the AFC North race with a 7-6 record, but the ride has been bumpy, to say the least. Pittsburgh has lost 3 of its last 5 games but got a huge win on the road in Baltimore last week.
Rodgers has built some quick chemistry with WR DK Metcalf, who leads the team with 753 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. With the running game struggling to build any consistent momentum, look for Rodgers to go to Metcalf early and often in this one.
Pittsburgh's defense will be without star pass rusher TJ Watt on Monday, as he's recovering from a punctured lung (ouch!). The Steelers defense has been excellent in the red zone, but they're slightly below average in yards per play allowed.
MIA at PIT: 8:15 PM ET on Monday, December 15
At first glance, I wanted to take the points with the Fish. They've shown a lot of fight lately by winning 4 in a row. However, context is everything in the NFL, so let's take a look at who Miami has played during that stretch. Three of those four wins were against awful teams (Jets, Saints, Commanders). That's not exactly a murderer's row of tough opponents.
We do have to give the Dolphins credit for beating the Bills back in early November as 9.5-point underdogs. We actually won quite a bit of cash on them in that spot. However, this spot is completely different. This is a back-to-back roadie situation for Miami, which is always a tough spot to thrive in.
The Steelers also have an edge in two key offensive metrics. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in 3rd-down conversion rate, while Miami ranks just 27th. Pittsburgh also ranks 8th in red zone offense, while Miami ranks 21st. The Steelers score TDs, and the Dolphins kick a lot of field goals.
Throw in the fact that the Steelers have played the 12th toughest schedule and the Fish have only played the 29th toughest, and you can see why I made this line Pittsburgh -7 at home on Monday Night Football. Let's lay it with the Steel Curtain. Good luck, sports betting family!