Welcome to Week 9 of the NFL season, sports betting family. Can you believe that after this week, we'll be halfway through the regular season? As usual, this week's pro football slate is packed with lots of intriguing matchups across the board.
I've found some expected value on the Falcons vs Patriots game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on CBS. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one should be fun to watch, and hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at New England -2.5 on the look-ahead a few days ago. However, that all changed when the Dolphins upset the Falcons in Week 8 action. Most online sportsbooks now have New England as a 6-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a small amount of interest in the Under so far. The line opened at 45.5, and a few sportsbooks in the US are now offering 45. There are no true outliers in the market at this time.
Atlanta was a huge favorite against Miami last weekend, but somebody forgot to tell that to the Dolphins. The Fish destroyed the Falcons to the tune of a 34-10 beatdown. Starting QB Michael Penix missed the game with a knee injury, and veteran backup Kirk Cousins couldn't get anything going.
The Falcons defense laid a major egg last weekend, but this is still one of the best units in football at defending the pass. Atlanta ranks 2nd in the league in yards per pass allowed. They also do a great job of rushing the passer, as they rank 9th in sack rate this season.
New England has won 5 in a row, and Mike Vrabel and Co. have already surpassed most folks' preseason expectations. The Pats look like geniuses for drafting Drake Maye, as he has really come into his own in year No. 2. New England ranks 2nd in yards per pass and 8th in yards per play.
The Pats defense does an excellent job of stuffing the run, as they rank 2nd in yards per rush allowed. That should mean that they won't have much trouble slowing down Bijan Robinson and the Falcons' running game.
ATL at NE - 1:00 PM EST on 11/2
Faithful readers of my NFL column know that I love betting on teams after a dreadful performance. It's basically like buying a stock that's on sale. Atlanta definitely meets that criteria this week after losing to Miami in blowout fashion.
I know that was an awful game for the Dirty Birds, but keep in mind that this is the same team that upset Buffalo a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football. Atlanta has plenty of talent, and I think they'll bounce back strong here with their backs against the wall.
On the flip side, this is the perfect time to sell the Patriots at a high. They've been more than impressive, but asking them to win by a full TD is a tall order. Sure, they covered easily last week against the Browns, but the Falcons have a lot of talent than the Brownies, especially on the offensive end. Let's play Atlanta with the points and sprinkle a little something on the moneyline. Good luck, folks!
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 24 - Patriots 21