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Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season, sports betting amigos. There's nothing like Sunday Night Football to wrap up a great day, and we have a pretty solid matchup for us here with Aaron Rodgers taking on his former team.
I've found some expected value on the Packers vs Steelers game, which kicks off at 8:20 PM Eastern Time on NBC. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one should be fun to watch, and hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Green Bay -2.5 on the look-ahead a few days ago. However, that all changed when the Bengals upset the Steelers on Thursday Night Football last week. Most online sportsbooks now have Green Bay as a 3-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a small amount of interest in the Under so far. The line opened at 45.5, and a few sportsbooks in the US are now offering 44.5. There are no true outliers in the market at this time.
Pittsburgh laid an egg last week on Thursday Night Football, but the boys in black are still 4-2 this season. The ageless wonder, Aaron Rodgers, continues to toss the ball around the yard like he's at least 10 years younger. You know the former Packer legend would love nothing more than to stick it to his former squad in a primetime game.
The Steelers offense hasn't been earth-shattering from a yards per play perspective, but they've done an excellent job of converting third downs. The o-line has done well at keeping Rodgers upright, as Pittsburgh ranks inside the Top 10 in sack rate allowed.
I'm not quite sold yet on this Steelers defense. They give up a lot of yards on the ground and through the air, so they'll need to step things up if they want to slow down this Packers offense.
Green Bay is a solid 4-1-1 this season, and they still look like one of the top teams in the NFL. The Packers lead the league in third-down conversion rate, and they're 4th in yards per pass. It's pretty amazing how fast Jordan Love has matured in a league where many young QBs never pan out.
The Packers' defense is one of the best in football, and the signing of Micah Parsons has already paid huge dividends. Green Bay ranks 4th in yards per rush allowed and 1st in yards per pass allowed. Pittsburgh will have to find creative ways to generate points in this one.
GB at PIT - 8:20 PM EDT on 10/26
Pittsburgh was humbled in a big way by Cincinnati in their last game on Thursday Night Football. They now get a little mini bye to stew on that bad performance and a shot at redemption in primetime this Sunday. I think this is the perfect opportunity to buy them at a relatively low price here at home.
The lookahead line was Green Bay -2.5, but now that we're out past a field goal, that's a bridge too far, at least according to my numbers. I made the Packers a 1.5-point favorite in this one, mainly because they just haven't looked as dominant on the road this season. Pittsburgh ranks 6th in sack rate, and I think they can make Jordan Love at least a little bit uncomfortable.
As crazy as it sounds, the Pack have not covered a game on the highway yet this season. They failed to cover last week against the Cards, tied with the Cowboys on Sept 28th, and lost outright as big favs to the Brownies back on Sept 21st. Give me the home dog in this one, and yes, I'll be sprinkling some on the moneyline as well. Good luck, sports betting amigos!