Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL season, sports betting amigos. There's nothing like Monday Night Football to kick off a new work week, and we have a pretty solid doubleheader for us here on October 13.
I've found some expected value on Monday night's Bills vs. Falcons game, which kicks off at 7:15 PM Eastern Time on ESPN. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one may be an ugly watch, but hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Buffalo -5.5 on the look-ahead line. However, that all changed when the Patriots upset the Bills on Sunday Night Football last week. Most online sportsbooks now have Buffalo as a 4-point favorite as of Wednesday afternoon.
As for the game total, there's been a small amount of interest in the Over so far. The line opened at 48.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 49.5. There are no true outliers in the market at this time.
Buffalo messed around and lost a division game at home last week. The Bills actually racked up more yardage and more first downs than the Pats, but three turnovers ultimately did them in. Dalton Kincaid hauled in 6 receptions for 108 yards in the loss.
As crazy as this may sound, I think Buffalo's soft schedule has worked against them a little bit. I watched their win over Miami a couple of weeks ago on Thursday Night Football and thought that they looked a little bored.
Even still, this offense is nothing to mess around with, as they rank 3rd in points per game and 6th in yards per play. Atlanta's defense had better be ready if they hope to pull off the upset on Monday.
Atlanta fired their receivers coach a few weeks ago and moved its OC from the booth to the field. The move is supposed to help get Michael Penix the plays earlier to settle him down a little more.
The transition worked great against Washington in Week 4, as the Falcons put up 34 points in that game to even up their record at 2-2. Atlanta has been pretty good on third down, but they've got to do a better job of scoring touchdowns once they get into the red zone.
Atlanta has done a pretty good job of protecting Penix, but he's still thrown three untimely interceptions. He'll have to tighten that up for Atlanta to pull off the shocker. Even still, the Falcons rank 10th in turnover margin.
I think this is a great spot to play the Dirty Birds coming off their bye week. Sure, I expect a much better effort from the Bills after they were embarrassed by the Pats on Sunday Night Football. That being said, I think Atlanta can keep this close.
The Falcons' defense has been a whole lot better than I thought they would be so far. Atlanta ranks 3rd in yards per play allowed and 2nd in yards per pass allowed. The Bills have a great offense, but the sledding will be much tougher than most expect.
Buffalo has struggled to stop the run all year long, and I think Atlanta's O-line should be able to open up some gaping holes for Bijan Robinson and Co. Give me the Falcons to cover this number.
Added bonus: Buffalo ranks dead last (32nd) in strength of schedule, while Atlanta ranks 9th.
Prediction: Bills 27 - Falcons 24