Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season, sports betting family. There's nothing like an autumn Sunday packed with lots of fun matchups like we have on this weekend's card.
I've found some nice expected value on Sunday afternoon's Dolphins vs. Panthers game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on FOX. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one may be an ugly watch, but hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the break down.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Carolina -1.5 on the look-ahead line. However, that all changed when the Dolphins beat the Jets on Monday Night Football. Most online sportsbooks now have Miami as a 1.5-point favorite as of Thursday morning. The Panthers getting throttled by the Patriots may have also had something to do with the line move.
As for the game total, there's been almost no movement either way so far. The line opened at 44.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering that same number. The only outlier right now is DraftKings, which is dealing 45.5.
Carolina blew out Atlanta a couple of weeks ago to the tune of 30-0 to earn its first win of the season. However, they came back to earth with a loud thud last week against New England. The Pats dominated them on both sides of the ball en route to a 42-13 beatdown.
So, will the Panthers get back up off the mat after that whipping? It's hard to say for sure, but they should put up more of a fight at home. Bryce Young has played pretty decently so far, throwing for 753 yards and 5 TDs.
Rookie Tet McMillan has been Young's favorite target, as he's hauled in 18 receptions for 278 yards. You can bet that Carolina will be trying to get the 6'5" youngster the ball as often as possible against Miami.
Miami earned its first win of the season on Monday Night Football against the Jets. Though the final score was 27-21, the Jets were never really in the ball game.
The Dolphins were up by two TDs heading into the fourth before the Jets scored a little bit in garbage time behind an insane TD grab from Garrett Wilson. Tua Tagovailoa didn't throw for a ton of yards, but he finished 17 of 25 for 177 yards and 2 TDs.
Unfortunately for the Fish, star WR Tyreek Hill was lost for the season with a gruesome knee injury. That means Miami will lean more on Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane to carry the load on offense.
I feel like I have a pretty good read on this Carolina team. We played them when they blew out the Falcons, and we faded them last week in their huge loss against the Patriots. As uncomfortable as it may be, I'm betting they bounce back and play better this week against a similarly bad team.
Miami has some nice offensive weapons, but the spot is pretty tough for them, as they'll be on a short week after Monday Night Football. My true number on the game is Carolina -2, but I adjusted that up a hair because of the Panthers strength of schedule.
Carolina has played the 11th-toughest schedule so far, while Miami has only played the 22nd-toughest. Look for young Tet to cause all kinds of problems for this banged-up Dolphins secondary. Give me the Panthers to get the W at home!
Prediction: Panthers 24 - Dolphins 20