2025 is off to a terrific start for our NFL Anytime TD props, as we are sitting at 12-13 for a profit of 6.11 units. Week 4's results were pretty close to break even, as we wound up at 3-4 with a slight 0.22-unit loss.
Ant is still undefeated, but Mitch still has the overall profit lead, mainly thanks to Drake Maye +400 in Week 2 ringing the cash register.
Let's find out what Week 5 will hold. Our staff gives out their best Anytime Touchdown props below. Best of luck, folks! Let's get into it!
NYG at NO - 1:00 PM EDT
Sitting at 0-4, I feel awful. Just awful. I'm leading you wrong, and I'm the laughingstock of the Zoom calls. But we need to persevere. The show must go on. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Streaks always break... eventually. This week, I am looking to the Giants as I see the value in Darius Slayton +240.
With Malik Nabers out, Slayton steps into the WR1 shoes. Shoes he has comfortably worn before BTW. Remember that Slayton was the Giants receiver 4/ 5 years from 2019 to 2023. He averaged 15 yards per catch then and still does this season. And historically, when Nabers isn’t on the field, Slayton sees close to a 30% target share. Volume + price = value. And with Jaxson Dart starting his 2nd NFL game, I like the veteran presence and consistency Slayton brings to the huddle.
As far as the Saints go, their defense does not scare me. They’re giving up touchdowns in the red zone at a clip of nearly 77%, and their corners have already been beaten for multiple explosive plays. This is the exact kind of matchup where Slayton sneaks behind coverage for six.
He’s a vet, and he now has an increased opportunity. Slayton was this week's big fantasy pick-up, and I think he is going to prove it quickly.
+240 is juicy. Let’s ride.
LV at IND - 1:00 PM EDT
Okay, time to break this slump, but I love plus money too much, so I'm risking it again. I’m rolling with Daniel Jones for an anytime touchdown because he’s quietly becoming one of the better red-zone rushing threats not just at the QB position, but in the NFL in general. Yes, I know I’m going back-to-back with QBs, but there’s some substance to this.
Look at it like this — Jones is tied for rushing TDs with some of the best RBs in the game, including Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and David Montgomery. Through 4 games, he already has 3 rushing touchdowns, and he’s clearly being used more on the ground as the season picks up. Over the last 4 weeks, he’s averaging 4+ carries per game. Now he gets a soft Vegas defense that’s bottom third in both yards and points allowed, giving up nearly 25 points per game.
That tells me there’ll be plenty of scoring chances against a team that is ranked 25th in most power rankings. The Raiders aren’t stopping mobile QBs either, and with the Giants trusting Jones more near the goal line, I love the chances of him tucking it and taking it in himself. At +180 odds, he’s got some serious value this week.
DAL at NYG- 1:00 PM EDT
Puka Nacua got us home last week, so I need to keep the positive mojo going. As the resident Cowboys fan on this team, I must say that I was shocked that they hung with the Packers for four quarters last week on Sunday Night Football. However, I don't feel great about this road trip on Sunday.
Even though I hate the spot for Dallas, I do feel like Javonte Williams will get plenty of red zone opportunities, and it's not like the J-E-T-S are the Mona Lisa Vido of defenses. Dallas has run the ball a whole lot better than most folks thought they would this season. The 'Boys rank 4th in the NFL in yards per rush, and Williams is a big reason why. The former Denver Bronco is averaging 5 yards per carry, and that has taken some of the pressure off of Dak Prescott.
CeeDee Lamb being hurt makes me like Williams to score even more this Sunday against a not-so-good Jets defense. Lamb got a lot of red-zone targets, and since he's on the shelf, I look for the Cowboys to run a bit more in the red zone. Williams gets around 17 carries per game, and he's already found the end zone 4 times this season. I'll bet he finds his 5th on Sunday! Good luck!
DAL at NYJ - 1:00 PM EDT
This is a tough spot for the Jets. They're coming off yet another loss, thanks to three turnovers on Monday Night Football against the Dolphins. They're back at home, but on a short week after that disheartening defeat.
In case you haven't noticed, Dak Prescott has been dialed in so far this season. The former Mississippi State star has already thrown for 1,119 yards, which ranks 2nd in the league. As crazy as it may sound, Prescott hasn't missed a beat since CeeDee Lamb went down with an ankle injury.
With Lamb still out and Sauce Gardner matched up on George Pickens, look for Prescott to give Jalen Tolbert more targets. He's gotten 12 targets over his last two outings, and I think he may even get a red zone target or two in this one. This price is too juicy to pass up!
DEN at PHI - 1:00 PM EDT
Well, Keenan Allen couldn’t keep us afloat after a poor game against the Giants. With that offensive line so depleted, Herbert just wasn’t able to find his receivers. So, we’re dropping the Chargers this week and shifting to a division rival to take on RJ Harbey and the Broncos. Harvey looked excellent on Monday night. Earning the trust of Nix and Payton on the field.
He ended the game just shy of 100 all-purpose yards and 1 receiving TD, and did all of that in just 14 carries and 5 targets. However, Harvey is still working in a split-back situation next to JK Dobbins, who is earning a lion’s share of the touches. However, with Harvey proving to be a reliable receiving back, he should see a solid amount of work against the Eagles. As strong as the Eagles’ defense has been this year, they have surrendered a significant number of yards to RBs through the air.
They rank about 4th in most passing yards per play allowed to RBs. With teams averaging 0.5 TD per game through the air to RBs. So the combination of Sean Payton's affinity for receiving backs and Nix’s reliance on checkdowns gives this line some potential. I expect to see Harvey used as much as possible, especially in the red zone.
WSH at LAC - 4:25 PM EDT
Another week down and another notch in the win column. This week, I'm going with Quentin Johnston, WR #1, on a solid Chargers team. Not a single person had the Giants getting their first win against this Chargers team last week, not even me, the resident Giants fan.
I think the Chargers come out planning to make a statement against another NFC East team. It seems that Jayden Daniels will be back in the rotation for the Commanders, which means the Chargers will have to put up points to secure this win.
That's where our boy comes in. Johnston is currently sitting at 4 TDs for the year, with 2 coming in one game. He has quickly become Herbert's favorite target, and that's evident. Back-to-back 10+ target games. I think one of those targets comes in the endzone and gets us our 5th win of the year! LET'S RIDEEEEEE!!