It was another rough day at the office for our NFL Anytime TD props in Week 17, as we went 3-6 to run our season-long record to 38-63. The overall deficit now stands at a disappointing -7.24 units.
Anyway, let's shake it off and move forward! Our staff gives out their best Anytime Touchdown props below. Good luck! Let's finish strong!
NO at TB- 1:00 PM EST
We made it to the last week of the season. And what should we be looking at in week 18? Contract incentives! There are a few guys this week that need 1 or 2 TDs to get a nice big fat bonus check.
The easy one is Derrick Henry. No doubt that the team will be doing what they can to get him that $500K check. Ravens need to win for home-field next week. But at -210 that's not enough meat on the bone for me to get back to even on the season.
So, I'm going a little deeper. Deandre Hopkins needs 1 TD for $500K but the Chiefs expect to rest most of their starters.
Zach Ertz needs two for $250. Two is too many.
MVS needs 1 for $250K. But for a team that's eliminated, I have no faith in this. OK, my theory is fading fast, so left pivot.
Mike Evans. Does he need a TD for a bonus? Nope. Does he need 5 catches and 85 yards for a..... Wait for it.... $3 Million dollar bonus? Yup! And the Bucs control their own playoff dynasty, so they are playing to win. All that considered, Mike Evans is highly motivated this week. Good luck and see you in the playoffs!
CIN at PIT - 8:00 PM EST (Saturday)
Honestly, can't touch Evan's incentives, so I went another route.....While my colleagues are going after contract incentives in Week 18, I’m going to go a little different route. I’m shooting for Ja'Marr Chase to notch an anytime TD this week — again.
He doesn’t have any incentives like Mike Evans, however, he is continuing his pursuit of the NFL Triple Crown. Yes, it’s a thing.
Chase has been nothing short of dominant this season as he is currently leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. His 16 TDs are in the lead by 4 from the next-up WR. These TDs are simply a testament to his ability to not only pile up yards but to consistently find the end zone, making him a nightmare for defenses.
With the Steelers ranking 23rd in passing yards allowed per game with 226 on average, Chase is in an ideal position to extend his lead in all 3 categories. The Steeler’s defense has struggled to contain top receivers, and Chase’s elite route running, explosiveness, and chemistry with Joe Burrow make him a near-lock to make the most of those weaknesses.
With only 4 previous NFL superstars achieving this feat, I don’t see Chase letting off on the gas in the final stretch. He will unquestionably get another touchdown to close out the regular season and do everything he can to get the Bengals a playoff slot — while making history.
MIN at DET - 8:20 PM EST
Jordan Addison got us to the promised land last week, but unfortunately, the books have adjusted his odds downward for Sunday Night Football's massive matchup between Minnesota and Detroit. Because of that, I'm rolling with my old Bama buddy Jameson Williams!
Did you know that this game total is currently posted at 56? If that holds, it'll be the highest Over/Under of the regular season. Some quick and dirty math tells us that the sharpest minds in the industry expect around 8 touchdowns in this ball game. That's a good enough reason for me to grab this plus money on Jamo!
Lions OC Ben Johnson proved on Monday Night Football against San Fran that he has plenty of ways to get Williams the rock. He scored on a dandy little hook-and-lateral play after notching a rushing TD as well. This one looks mighty good, folks!
MIN at DET - 8:20 PM EST
George Kittle let me down last week, but I'm still the leader in the clubhouse in this contest. Because of that, I'm going to take a shot with a mediumly-priced tight end this week.
Sure, Detroit does a great job of limiting tight end production, but the revenge angle looms large in this spot. Hockenson would love nothing more than to score a TD against the team that traded him away. Kevin O'Connell is a crafty enough play caller to make that happen.
KC at DEN- 4:25 PM EST
Well, it’s week 18, and you know what that means… A ton of weird games with loads of guys sitting out. It’s absolute chaos for betting, and I love it. So why not go with a team still trying to slip into the playoffs?
The Broncos are the favorite to make the last spot of the AFC, and all they need is a win over the Chiefs. Usually, that would be an issue, but it looks like the Chiefs will be resting guys, so the Broncos are already a +10 favorite. That’s why I like Marvin Mims this week.
The second-year wideout has seen his numbers rise late this season. He’s gone from 1 or 2 targets a game to 8 in their last game against the Bengals. With over 100 yards and two TDs last week, I think Mims might be in for another big game. Especially against the Chief's backups, he could be linking up with Nix all game.
CIN at PIT - 8:00 PM EST (Saturday)
**PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK**
We got back in the W column last week thanks to Courtland Sutton! I went with a different approach here this week. While everyone is going to throw a bunch of numbers, analytics, and incentives at you I went a different route.
I thought let's put some names in a hat and let my beautiful wife decide. I am taking Russell Wilson anytime td +500 on DraftKings!! He may have only 2 rushing TDs on the year, but one of those was last week!
I look for him to have more rushing opportunities and give us a shot at cashing in. Happy New Year folks and here's to a great NFL Playoffs! In the wise words of a great man of STEELERS COUNTRY... LETS RIDE!
CAR at ATL: 1:00 PM EST
Michael Penix Jr. is all in on the late season reps. The Falcons may be in a total tailspin since benching Kirk Cousins not too long ago, but the Rookie from Washington has had some decent performances since he took over the starting job in December. Darnell Mooney hasn’t been targeted a ton, but I like his ability to catch the deep ball against this atrocious Carolina secondary.
Carolina gave up 350 yards to Tampa last week through the air, and 200 yards the week before that in their upset win against Carolina. Mooney doesn’t have any truly favorable stats coming into this matchup, but it's the overarching things that make me like him headed into this week.
Carolina gives up the most TDs through the air per game this year (2.1)
And the 6th most yards per attempt through the air (7.6) Mooney has become THE deep threat for Atlanta. If there’s a down the field play to be made, it’ll come this Sunday against Carolina.