The 8-6 Chargers play host to the 9-5 Broncos in a key divisional matchup that has massive AFC playoff implications. While Bo Nix will try to limit the turnovers in this one, watch for Justin Herbert’s legs to keep Los Angeles in this ball game.
After failing to reach this prop mark in his last four matchups before Indianapolis last week, Nix rushed for 23 yards in an odd victory over the Colts where he threw for 3 TDs and 3 interceptions.
With the Broncos sitting at 9-5 and needing a massive victory at SoFi that would give them five in a row, I’m expecting a safer game from Bo Nix where he doesn’t carry the ball 8 times and tries to break down the Chargers defense with play action and short passes.
I’m not buying into this Broncos rushing game breaking down the Chargers defensive front. He broke out for almost 80 total yards against Atlanta in Week 11 to catapult the Broncos' winning streak.
However, Williams has totaled less than 25 total yards in four of his last five and although time-share companion Jaleel McLaughlin is out of this matchup, I expect the trio of Williams, Estime, and potentially Marvin Mims to share the backfield carries.
McConkey returned from injury last week and showed no signs of stepping back, scoring a touchdown and going for 58 yards on 5 catches from Herbert.
As the Chargers’ top target, he will be tasked with breaking down the tough Broncos defense, but with Pat Surtain on injury watch, McConkey has a great chance to break away for a big gain at some point in this game. Ladd averages 76.1 YPG at home vs. 56.7 YPG away from SoFi.
Although Herbert is coming into this TNF matchup banged up, the Chargers’ playoff hopes are on the line, and it will ride or die with Justin’s escapability outside of the pocket.
Herbert averages 25.9 YPG on the ground at home vs. just 6.1 YPG in away matchups this season. In wins? He’s averaging 21.9 YPG vs. 8.2 YPG in losses. All signs and splits point to Herbert utilizing his legs at SoFi in this matchup.